Despite predictions that the claimant count in July would rise in the aftermath of the June Brexit vote, the claimant count actually fell by 8.6k, in the process posting its biggest monthly decline since February, and confounding some of the more pessimistic musings that have been aired since the surprise summer vote.
While the pound briefly rallied to 1.3060 on the back of these numbers it has struggled to follow through since yesterday’s rebound off the recent lows just above 1.2800.
Ultimately it still remains very early days to predict with any degree of accuracy the overall effects of an event which to all intents and purposes has not happened yet, and whose effects could take a while to unfold.
The ILO unemployment rate in the three months to June held steady at 4.9%, and in all probability is likely to stay at these levels for at least another month, given today’s positive claims numbers.
More encouragingly given yesterday’s sharp rise in inflationary pressure, was that average earnings also rose to their best levels since October last year, coming in at 2.4%.
With retail sales for July due tomorrow and expected to rebound after a sharp fall in June if the recent BRC retail sales data is any sort of guide the outlook for the UK economy doesn’t look as dire as some have suggested even though it still remains very early days.
If the Brexit vote has put a bomb under the economy as David Cameron suggested it might before the June vote, then it must have a very long fuse, as for now, there appears to be very little evidence of it at this time.
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