Just as I suspected yesterday, the fear trade was getting too crowded and today finds risk markets rebounding around a number of significant economic reports.
US index futures are steady this morning consolidating yesterday afternoon's gains. UK and European indices are playing catch up this morning with the FTSE up 1.2% and the Dax up 1.0%.
Crude oil is up 1.2% overnight on the back of a big 6.3 mmbbl drop in US API inventories with traders now looking to today's DOE report for confirmation. Falling oil inventories and rising PMI are signs of a robust economy. Meanwhile, yesterday's FOMC minutes showed a central bank reluctant to raise interest rates due to uncertainty over employment and Brexit. The combination of a strong economy and neutral Fed creates a sweet spot that could create a Goldilocks scenario and support strong corporate earnings growth, supporting stock prices.
Today's ADP payrolls report may give more insight into the health of the US job market and economy. The street is expecting 160K job growth down slightly from last month's 173K but way above last month's 38K increase in nonfarm payrolls. Jobless claims over the last month suggest employment remains strong so the payroll reports of the next two days may give a better feeling of whether slowing job growth reflects a slowing economy or a strong economy nearing full employment.
Despite continued concerns about outflows from UK property funds and potential bailouts of Italian banks traders have responded to positive economic numbers. UK industrial production for May and house prices came in better than expected while German industrial production came in below expectations. Later today ECB minutes and the next round of voting in the UK Conservative leadership contest may attract attention from traders.
As an aside, I think traders pulling out of UK property funds have made a colossal error in their expectations. Real estate has quietly become more global with people buying up property all over the world. The plunge in the pound has just put UK properties on deep discount for outside buyers, just as we saw in Toronto and Vancouver where house prices have exploded as the Loonie fell making Canadian property cheap relative to other countries. As the old saying goes, they aren't making any more land, so UK property prices, particularly in prime locations, may end up increasing not decreasing due to the lower currency.
There have been no major corporate announcements so far today.
US API crude oil inventories (6.7 mmbbls) vs street (2.5 mmbbls)
UK Halifax house prices 8.4% vs street 7.8%
UK industrial production 1.4% vs street 0.5%
UK manufacturing production 1.7% vs street 0.4%
Germany industrial production (0.4%) vs street 1.5%
Norway industrial production (0.6%) vs previous 3.2%
Greece unemployment rate 23.3% vs previous 24.1%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
8:15 am EDT US ADP Payrolls street 160K
8:15 am EDT US ADP payrolls revision previous 173K
8:30 am EDT US jobless claims street 267K
3:00 pm BST UK NIESR GDP estimate previous 0.5%
10:00 am EDT Canada Ivey PMI street 51.2 vs previous 49.4
10:30 am EDT US natural gas street 41 BCF
11:00 am EDT US DOE crude oil inventories street (2.5 mmbbls)
11:00 am EDT US DOE gasoline inventories street (0.2 mmbbls)
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