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Sterling volatile on conflicting polls, crude oil tumbles

Stock markets are holding steady this morning with US index futures and European indices trading flat to up slightly. The main action has been in currencies and commodities.

Sterling has been on a roller coaster ride. Cable was knocked under $1.2800 early on as traders considered the prospect of Theresa May potentially losing her majority and what a Hung Parliament could mean for Brexit talks after a YouGov riding by riding projection suggested the Conservatives could lose 20 seats. As the day has progressed, however, Sterling has bounced back strongly on a new poll from Panelbase giving the ‎Conservatives a 48% to 33% lead over Labour. With polls all over the place, GBP pairs could remain active through next week's big vote. 

‎Crude oil, meanwhile, has been knocked down 1.7% and remains down with Brent approaching $50 again. Oil traders appear skittish ahead of tonight's API and tomorrow's DOE US inventory numbers. Traders are still looking for confirmation of whether recent drawdowns are an anomaly or the start of a new downtrend. 

Fed speculation in the US Dollar and other markets may continue today with Chicago PMI out this morning and the Beige Book regional economic report coming this afternoon. The main data events are still to come with ADP payrolls tomorrow and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. CAD and Canadian stocks could be active today around the Canadian March GDP report and an IMF update on the Canadian economic outlook. A lot still hinges on the NAFTA renegotiation which is expected to get underway in August. 

Corporate News

There have been no major corporate announcements this morning. 

Economic News

Significant announcements released overnight include:

China manufacturing PMI    51.2 vs street 51.0
China non-manufacturing PMI    54.5 vs previous 54.0

Japan industrial production    5.7% vs street 6.1% vs previous 3.5%

Germany retail sales        (0.9%) vs street 2.2%
Germany unemployment chng    (9K) vs street (15K)
Germany unemployment rate    5.7% as expected

Upcoming significant economic announcements include:

8:30 am EDT        Canada March GDP        street 2.9% vs previous 2.5%
9:30 am EDT        IMF annual review of Canada

9:45 am EDT        US Chicago PMI        street 57.0
10:00 am EDT        US pending home sales        street 0.5%

2:00 pm EDT        US Fed Beige Book

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