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Markets retrench big moves, Bank of Canada preview

Stock markets are trading slightly higher this morning with US index futures, the FTSE and the Dax all up about 0.2%. UK employment came in better than expected and showed wage inflation continuing to increase. Today, US consumer price inflation is due which may indicate is inflation pressures on the central banks are continuing to grow.

The inflation impact of commodity prices remains mixed. Copper is down 0.4% while crude oil is falling back again today with WTI down 1.3%. Today oil traders appear to be more focused on the more immediate potential that US shale production could start to rise as soon as next month responding to recent gains that have pushed WTI back above $50. In contrast, the China forecast declines that boosted prices Tuesday are more likely to play out over the longer term.

The USD has staged a trading bounce overnight knocking ‎JPY, GBP, EUR and CAD back in what look like normal trading corrections of big rallies and breakout point retests. Interestingly gold is trading flat on to its recent gains. Political risk, particularly related to trade, and uncertainty over what the incoming Trump administration may do for the US economy could keep forex trading active for some time to come.

CAD could be active today between oil price and USD moves and today's Bank of Canada interest rate decision, monetary policy report and Poloz press conference. Recent Canadian economic data including employment, PMI and housing starts have been positive so there's no need for a rate cut. Similarly, with oil and CAD on the rise there's no need for a rate hike either. With a lot of uncertainty out there over how aggressive the Fed's rate hike program is going to be, Governor Poloz is likely to remain on hold for a while until the dust settles.

 That being said, traders may look to the statement and press conference for confirmation Canada's economy is improving. The loonie could be impacted if any disappointments or dovish surprises emerge. 

Corporate News

Target    Nov/Dec total sales (4.9%) same store sales (1.3%), cuts full year EPS guidance to $5.00-$5.10 from $5.10-$5.30; Karma catching up after what they did to Canada?

Goldman Sachs        $5.08 vs street $4.76

Economic News

Germany consumer prices        1.7% as expected

UK jobless claims change        (10K) vs street 5K
UK 3M employment change        (9K) vs street (35K)
UK unemployment rate            4.8% as expected
UK average weekly earnings        2.8% vs street 2.6%

Eurozone construction output        0.0% vs previous 2.2%
Eurozone consumer prices         1.1% as expected
Eurozone core CPI             0.9% as expected

Upcoming significant economic announcements include:

8:30 am EST        US consumer prices            street 2.1%
8:30 am EST        US core CPI                street 2.1%

9:00 am EST        FOMC Kaplan speaking
11:00 am EST        FOMC Kashkari speaking 
3:00 pm EST        FOMC Yellen speaking
9:15 am EST        US industrial production            street 0.6% vs previous (0.4%)

10:00 am EST        Bank of Canada decision        0.50% no change expected
10:00 am EST        Bank of Canada monetary policy report
11:15 am EST        Bank of Canada Poloz and Wilkins press conference

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