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Indices

US 30: The short-term up trend remains intact with daily candles continuing to make higher lows and higher highs. However, the price continues to show signs of stalling at a trend line drawn across the peaks of 19 May and 23 June. If price fails at this level it would be confirmed as short-term resistance. The RSI is above the 50% zone but is tracking sideways, suggesting potentially either a pause in the uptrend or a pull back. The 200-day moving average provides potential support around 17,735. Germany 30: The uptrend remains intact on the daily chart but momentum has slowed, as demonstrated by yesterday’s Doji candle. As with the US30, the 14 period RSI remains above 50 but is currently tracking sideways, indicating potential for a sideways pause or a full-blown pull back. The 23 June peak at 11,636 provides potential near-term resistance and, above that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 11,731. The bottom of last Friday’s gap at 11,147 provides potential support. Australia 200: Yesterday saw a clear break out of the recent trading range, and indeed the 200-day moving average. The daily trend remains up. However, the price has now arrived at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement for the downtrend that began in late June. A clear break above this would be another sign of strength, but failure could see the beginning of another leg lower in the big-picture choppy downtrend that’s been in place since early June. This 14-day RSI is now tracking north, above 50% in a positive development. The 24 June peak at 5705 is the next resistance after the current 78.6% retracement level. The first significant support on the hourly chart looks to be around 5616. Hong Kong H Shares: Yesterday the daily candle made a lower low, confirming a short-term downtrend. The 14-day RSI is again tracking lower, towards the oversold zone below 30%. This creates potential for a pullback and correction of the recent rally. Yesterday’s low stopped neatly at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. However, unless the recent high is taken out, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 11,237 and the 78.6% at 11.005 may be levels to watch. The previous low at 10,711 represents support and a break below that would see resumption of the big-picture downtrend. Monday’s high and the 200-day moving average now represent initial resistance to the upside, around 12,089/12,160.
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