Asia Pacific indices

Australia 200 has cleared 5,900 and appears to be taking another run at the 6,000 resistance level, which could lead to a breakout or a double top. RSI held 50 and has started to climb again, indicating upward momentum building. Japan 225 has started to level off in the 19,300 to 19,650 range, pausing to consolidate recent gains and work off an overbought RSI. It remains in an uptrend above its 50-day average near 19,110. The next upside resistance could be near the 20,000 big round number. HongKong 43 continues to climb, regaining 24,300 on the index and 50 on the RSI to confirm a new upswing is underway, with the next potential resistance near 24,730 then 25,000. The rising RSI indicates upward momentum increasing.

North American Indices

US30 has dropped back under the 18,000 round number after running into resistance near 18,140, with the next potential downside support near 17,730, a Fibonacci level. RSI is back above 50, in an encouraging but sideways trend, prevailing between 40 and 60. SPX500 was unable to stay above 2,100 and faltered short of the 2,120 resistance. The RSI stalling at 60 confirms sideways momentum is intact. Initial support should be near 2,090 then then the 2,065-2,075 zone. The Nasdaq is holding near the top of yesterday’s range in the upper half of this 4,300 to 4,500 trading channel. The RSI is still moving between 40 and 60, confirming the sideways trend is intact.

UK and European indices

UK 100 has paused just below the 7,000 round number resistance to digest recent gains, but remains in an upswing above 6,900. The RSI above 50 signals upward momentum still building. Germany 30 found some support near 11,800 and has bounced a bit, but remains below the 12,000 which it needs to retake to call off the current correction. RSI dipping back under 70 from overbought suggests an overdue correction just getting underway. More support is possible near 11,740 then 11,510, a Fibonacci test.

Commodities

Gold dropped back initially but held above its $1,160 breakout point where it completed a falling wedge pattern. Since then gold has resumed its advance, driving back up above $1,170 with the next potential resistance near $1,180 then $1,190. RSI also remains above the downtrend line it broke, indicating a change in momentum is under way. Crude Oil WTI failed to hold above $45 in yesterday’s relief rally and has turned downward once again, falling under $43.50 but holding $42 support so far. Its next downside test will be near $40. The RSI suggests downward pressure increasing again.

FX

NZD/USD smacked into resistance near $0.7580 and has been knocked back under $0.7400 into the lower half of its $0.7200 to $0.7600 trading channel, where it has been building a base after completing a double bottom. The RSI near 50 indicates neutral momentum. The next support should be near $0.7275, with first bounce resistance near $0.7440. AUD/USD remains in consolidation mode bouncing around in a channel between $0.75590 and $0.7925. It ran into resistance near $0.7835 and has been pounded back toward $0.7600. RSI remains stuck below 50, confirming the longer-term downward momentum is intact. USD/JPY is on the rebound having completed a bear trap washout dip below 120.00 and then driving back up toward 121.00, with resistance in place near 121.75. The RSI held 50, keeping its underlying uptrend intact. EUR/JPY has turned sharply downward once again, diving back under 130.00 and toward 128.50 after running into resistance near 131.60. A retest of its recent low near 126.90 appears possible. RSI remains well below 50, indicating downward pressure remains intact.

Singapore Equities

Reports have emerged that Switzerland has frozen US$400million of assets in more than 30 banks related to Petrobras’ widening corruption scandal. Watch for a possible knock-on to the price of both Sembawang Marine and Keppel Corp. Further ‘support’ for Noble came in the form of another report of a stake increase by Prudential Corporation Asia Limited. They reported an open market purchase of 4.4million shares at an average price of S$0.921, bringing their stake up to just above the 5% reporting level. So far this is the second consecutive investment house that has announced an increase in holdings for the group. Also, early morning reports on newswires today have suggested that Noble may be in talks with Chinese or Japanese groups about potentially making an approach.
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