Thursday has been another active day for trading in North America and Europe with many markets unwinding their immediate post Fed moves. While the removal of the “patient” guidance came as no surprise the cuts to member projections for GDP, inflation and fed funds totally took the street by surprise and shifted expectations for rate liftoff from June to September. Initally there was a huge move downward by the USD on the Fed news which took the lid off of currencies, commodities and US stocks. Over the course of today, the dust has settled somewhat. Stocks have been falling back with the Dow sliding back under 18,000 while major paper currencies have levelled off after giving back much of their initial rebound gains. Crude oil has also resumed its downtrend as Fed policy doesn’t change the fact that oil producers continue to fight over market share with nobody wanting to be the one to back down first. Natural gas is down 4% today as a smaller than expected storage drawdown reminded traders that winter heating season is winding down. One major market that has managed to build on yesterday’s gains is precious metals with gold and silver climbing again today. With the dust settling on the Fed decision, focus may be turning back to Europe where the ECB is trying to grow its balance sheet again while political risk surrounding Greece is on the rise again, both conditions that have boosted gold in the past. The top performing currency on the day has been NOK which has bounced back strongly after Norway’s central bank decided not to cut interest rates surprising the street which had expected a 0.25% rate cut. This decision suggests that the Bank of Canada may also keep rates steady at its next meeting. While both central banks with oil-sensitive economies and currencies may need to cut interest rates again this year, they may not be in a rush to do so right away. The big lesson from all of this for traders today: Central Banks do not take their marching orders from the markets. They can surprise at any time and may not necessarily act when traders think they should. Therefore while markets can indicate expectations, speculation can be wrong and its important traders avoid getting complacent around decisions. It’s a pretty quiet day for news to wrap up the week so we may see traders spend the time assessing what has happened over the last few days and preparing for the weekend. Canada is in focus with two major data reports on Friday morning that could give a better indication of how much the oil crash has impacted the economy and how much pressure the Bank of Canada is under to cut interest rates again sooner or later. CAD could be active on the news relative to both USD and also other resource currencies, particularly NOK. The upcoming EU Summit may also be top of mind, particularly any discussions surrounding Greece where treasury yields and financial fears continue to rise. Corporate News Nike $0.89 vs street $0.85 Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: Norway interest rate surprise 1.25% unchanged, a 0.25% cut to 1.00% had been widely expected Norway Q12016 rate projection lowered to 0.95% from 1.13% Switzerland interest rate (0.25%) no change as expected Switzerland deposit rate (0.75%) no change as expected Switzerland SNB GDP forecast cut to 1.00% from 2.00% Switzerland SNB CPI forecast lowered to (1.1% from (0.1% US jobless claims 291K vs street 293K US Philadelphia Fed 5.0 vs street 7.0 US leading index 0.2% as expected US natural gas (45 BCF) vs street (51 BCF) Upcoming significant announcements include: 7:00 am GMT Germany producer prices street (2.0%) 8:30 am EDT Canada consumer prices street 1.0% 8:30 am EDT Canada core CPI street 2.1% 8:30 am EDT Canada retail sales street (0.8%) 8:30 am EDT Canada retail ex auto street (0.5%) FOMC members Lockhart and Evans speaking