WTI crude oil has been on fire through August, particularly last week when it outperformed other world markets by a country mile. Technical signs suggest that the rally may be near exhaustion and a trading correction starting.
Over the last three months, a $40.00 to $50.00 trading range has emerged for WTI Crude oil. Following a successful retest of channel support at the end of July, WTI accelerated upward within the range though August.
It now looks like the recent upswing may be ending. WTI peaked above $48.00 just short of the top of the range at about the same time the RSI neared overbought territory, indicating it may be time for a correction.
Between Thursday the 18th and Monday the 22nd, a three day bearish candle formed called an Evening Star featuring a large increase Thursday showing the bulls in charge, a smaller rally Friday plus a doji to indicate dominance was coming into balance and a selloff Monday to signal the bears taking charge.
Initial correction support may appear in the $44.80 to $45.30 range where the midpoint of the channel, the 50-day moving average, a round number and a Fibonacci level converge.
Speculation that Russia and Saudi Arabia could meet next month along with other producers to discuss stabilizing the market was the main excuse for the rebound but as we’ve seen deal speculation is not a firm footing for an advance as it comes and goes.
US inventories fell last week and this week’s reports may spark some trading interest. With limited oil related news due, the price could fall back under its own weight without new catalysts to support the rally. Oil may also be impacted by swings in USD around Fed interest rate speculation particularly later in the week with FOMC Chair Yellen speaking Friday at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Conference.