Eurozone data was mixed with unemployment and GDP improving but inflation lagging. This puts the ECB in a bit of a bind but a rising EUR suggests the street expects inflation to return with oil in recovery mode. JPY also rallied again overnight as stimulus speculation continues to unravel. USD remains on its back foot. Dallas Fed Kaplan suggested this morning in London that the street may be underestimating how soon the next rate increase could come leaving the door open to a June hike. This hasn’t had much impact as the Dollar continues to price in two increases this year unlike the bond market which appears to be expecting zero or one at most.
The top performing major market overnight was Australia which caught a tailwind from a rally in resource stocks. With USD still sinking overnight sending gold and WTI to gains of over 1 percent again, Canadian resource stocks (particularly gold miners which dominated the TSX Thursday) may continue to attract renewed interest today. Energy stocks may also be in the spotlight, particularly integrated oils and refiners with ExxonMobil reporting results and Phillips 66 coming in way below expectations.
We could see more action in the technology sector as well today. After the close yesterday, LinkedIn and Amazon.com posted very strong earnings and/or guidance which could attract attention overnight and into Friday. LinkedIn popped 20% in initial aftermarket trading, a big turnaround from last quarter’s massive post-earnings selloff. Facebook may also be active again on follow through from its strong earnings report while the news that Carl Icahn has sold his shares may continue to drag on Apple.
It's the last day of the month and the day before a long weekend in much of Europe, so we could see some positioning ahead of next week's big PMI and payrolls reports. There is also still some data to deal with including US personal income and Chicago PMI plus monthly GDP and producer prices for Canada.
Amazon.com $1.07 vs street $0.58 (wow!!!) sales $29.1B vs street $27.9B, guides next Q sales to $28.0-$30.5B vs street $28.3B
LinkedIn $0.74 vs street $0.60, guides next Q EPS to $0.74-$0.77 above street $0.71
Exxon Mobil $0.43 vs street $0.31
Imperial Oil ($0.12) vs street ($0.09), 7% dividend increase.
Phillips 66 $0.67 vs street $0.90
Amgen $2.90 vs street $2.60, raises full year EPS guidance to $10.85-$11.20 from $10.60-$11.00.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Eurozone unemployment rate 10.2% vs street 10.3%
Eurozone consumer prices (0.2%) vs street (0.1%)
Eurozone core CPI 0.8% vs street 0.9%
Eurozone GDP 1.6% vs street 1.4%
France GDP 1.3% vs street 1.0%
Spain GDP 3.4% vs street 3.3%
France consumer prices (0.2%) vs street (0.1%)
France consumer spending 2.7% vs street 2.1%
Germany retail sales 0.7% vs street 2.7%
Norway unemployment rate 3.1% vs street 3.3%
Italy unemployment rate 11.4% vs street 11.6%
NZ ANZ activity outlook 32.1 vs previous 29.4
NZ ANZ bus confidence 6.2 vs previous 3.2
Australia producer prices 1.2% vs previous 1.9%
Upcoming significant announcements include:
8:30 am EDT US Q1 employment cost index street 0.6%
8:30 am EDT US personal income street 0.3%
8:30 am EDT US personal spending street 0.2%
8:30 am EDT US core PCE inflation street 1.6%
8:30 am EDT Canada Feb GDP street 1.5%
8:30 am EDT Canada industrial prices street 0.5% vs previous (1.1%)
8:30 am EDT Canada raw material prices street 3.7% vs previous (2.6%)
9:45 am EDT US Chicago PMI street 52.6
10:00 am EDT US consumer sentiment street 90.0
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