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Crude Oil rally, bank deal, and fading Brexit shock help stocks bounce back

crude oil

crude oil

The initial shock of last week's decision by the UK to leave the EU appears to have worked it's way through the markets. Having recalibrated, traders are now starting to anticipate what may happen next.

Building on yesterday's bounce, UK and European indices are up again today with the FTSE up 2.4% and the Dax up 1.8%. The EU summit continues today with leaders planning for a closer union post-Brexit. Apparently German finance minister Schauble has a number of reforms planned. ‎Most importantly while recognizing the potential for volatility two ECB officials indicated Brexit is "not a Lehman moment" which appears to be helping restore some confidence.  GBP continues to recover regaining $1.3400 against USD. 

Traders also appear to be taking solace from higher than expected UK mortgage lending and house prices indicating the economy remained resilient through the close campaign. Japan retail sales were worse than expected putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to act. There has also been speculation that the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve Board could cut rates or bring in more stimulus if needed. That's good to know but the fact that central banks haven't stepped in so far indicates the situation, while volatile and uncertain, has not spun out of control and central bankers aren't panicking at the moment.

Crude oil is having‎ another banner day rallying 1.2% on the back of another larger than expected API inventory drawdown This indicates a robust US economy and improving supply demand balance. This has helped to boost CAD and NOK and may boost interest in oil stocks. Energy related makets may remain active through the morning particularly around the DOE inventory report.

Bank stocks have been under pressure in recent days but could attract renewed interest after CIBC announced a $4.9B takeover of ‎PrivateBancorp which operates in the Chicago area. This may spark speculation that some banks which have suddenly become cheaper even though their exposure to Brexit is limited or zero, could become takeover targets. This deal also can be seen as confirmation Brexit is not a repeat of 2008 and many banks are carrying on business as usual, a sign of confidence. US stress test results due later in the day may also influence sentiment toward the banking sector. 

Corporate News

CIBC    agreed to acquire PribvateBancorp  a friendly deal worth US$3.8B in cash and shares


Economic News

UK Nationwide house prices        5.1% vs street 4.9%
UK mortgage approvals            67.0K vs street 65.3K

Spain consumer prices            (0.8%) vs street (0.9%) 
Norway retail sales            1.7% vs street 0.4%

Japan retail sales             (1.9%) vs street (1.6%)

Upcoming significant economic announcements include:

1:00 pm BST        Germany consumer prices        street 0.3%

8:30 am EDT        US personal income            street 0.3%
8:30 am EDT        US personal spending            street 0.4% vs previous 1.0%
8:30 am EDT        US core PCE inflation            street 1.6%

10:00 am EDT        US pending home sales            street 4.6%

10:30 am EDT        US DOE crude oil inventories        street (2.5 mmbbls) 
10:30 am EDT        US DOE gasoline inventories         street (0.3 mmbbls) 

4:30 pm EDT        Fed bank stress tests results

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