After modest falls around the globe overnight, futures markets are pointing to falls at the open for Australian shares. However, rallies in key commodity markets could see a swing in sentiment during today’s session. Potential gains for mining and energy stocks may see a positive finish for the day and a net rise for the week. Currency and commodity markets reacted to good news and data releases, in contrast to shares. The British Pound leapt after retail sales for February tripled expectations. Gold fell as concerns around Russian expansionism dropped, but industrial metals and oil rose as US jobless claims showed continuing gains in employment. Despite these supportive factors, both the US S&P 500 and FTSE indices fell, with traders citing already elevated share market levels as the cause. The longer term under performance of the ASX 200 index could be a plus today. Further rises in the AUD may moderate any resource based enthusiasm from investors. Trading at four month highs against the USD, charts are pointing to the potential for higher AUD levels ahead of the expected “jawboning” from the RBA after next Tuesday’s monthly meeting.

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