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Commentary: Very strong ADP report boosts USD, overhangs stocks
00:00, 08 January 2014
The ADP private sector payrolls report released this morning continued a series of positive economic reports out of the US. Not only did the number beat already high street expectations, but last month’s number was revised upward, a positive sign. This provides more evidence that the US economy is accelerating, enabling the Fed to maintain or possibly even accelerate the pace at which it cuts back QE3 (tapering). So far the action is US indices has been limited more capping the upside than sparking a correction with traders now looking for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for confirmation. In Europe today, the DAX, FTSE and CAC are all giving back some of yesterday’s gains as their overall consolidation trend continues while the IBEX and MIB continue to rally. The main response to the ADP report has been in currency markets where USD continues to climb, knocking back gold and silver and other defensive plays like CHF and JPY. GBP is flat against the greenback while EUR continues to retreat. Resource currencies are mixed today with CAD still falling along with SEK and NOK while NZD and AUD have been able to eke out small gains. Looking ahead, energy markets could be active later in the morning with inventories due. This afternoon, minutes from the last FOMC meeting are due but they may have already been superseded by more recent data, the confirmation vote and Fed member speeches. Tonight the monthly round of Chinese data announcements kicks off with the inflation reports. Economic News Significant economic announcements released yesterday afternoon and overnight include: US ADP payrolls 238K vs street 200K, previous month revised up to 229K from 215K Germany trade balance €18.1B vs street €18.0B Italy unemployment rate 12.7% vs street 12.5% Eurozone retail sales 1.6% vs street 0.3% Eurozone unemployment rate 12.1% as expected Germany factory orders 6.8% vs street 6.1% Poland interest rate decision 2.50% no change as expected Economic reports due later today include: 10:30 am EST US crude oil inventories street (2.7 mmbbls) 10:30 am EST US gasoline inventories street 2.5 mmbbls 2:00 pm EST US FOMC minutes