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Commentary: Strong ADP payrolls boost case for Fed QE tapering
00:00, 04 December 2013
The ADP private sector payroll this month came in very strong with growth of over 200K positions. More importantly, last month’s payrolls were revised sharply upward indicating a growing trend of job growth. This provides another sign that the US economic recovery is finally gaining some traction and keeps sentiment positive heading into today’s non-manufacturing PMI and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. It remains to be seen if recent positive data points will be enough to encourage the Fed to start tapering QE at its December meeting. Data has been strong enough, however, to encourage tapering speculation among traders and kick off overdue corrections in the marketplace. After all, even if the Fed doesn’t taper in December, the more likely March and April meetings aren’t that far away any more. Interestingly, US indices have rebounded a bit since the news came out after sliding overnight and USD has been stronger this morning. In both cases, this appears to due to some short covering against the news. European indices are down again on the day while WTI is trading higher, indicating that the overall theme of improving global economic conditions remains intact. AUD and NZD have had a rough ride overnight with the bottom falling out from under AUD after Australian GDP came in below expectations, further increasing speculation that the RBA may need to cut interest rates next year. NZD has fallen in sympathy even though the RBNZ has indicated it plans to raise rates in 2014. The one result of the selloff though is that it decreases the odds of a central bank intervention in FX trading, the threat appears to be enough to spook trading for now. CAD is holding steady against a resurgent greenback this morning but could be more active with the Bank of Canada’s latest decision due at 10:00 am ET. Recent weakness in the Loonie suggests that traders have been increasingly expecting the BoC to adopt a more dovish stance on policy through its statement even though a rate cut this time around still appears unlikely considering GDP beat expectations just last week. Corporate News National Bank $1.89 vs year ago $1.97, 2-for-1 stock split, raised dividend by 5.7% Economic News Significant economic announcements released yesterday afternoon and overnight include: US ADP payrolls 215K vs street 170K. Previous revised up to 184K from 130K US trade balance ($40.6B) vs street ($40.0B) Canada trade balance ($0.1B) vs street ($0.7B) US domestic vehicle sales 12.6M vs street 12.1M Australia GDP 2.3% vs street 2.6% Eurozone GDP (0.4%) as expected Eurozone retail sales (0.1%) vs street 1.0% Poland interest rate 2.50% no change as expected Service PMI: China HSBC 52.5 vs previous 52.6 India 47.2 vs previous 47.1 Spain 51.5 vs street 49.7 Italy 47.2 vs street 50.4 France 48.0 vs street 48.8 Germany 55.7 vs street 54.5 Eurozone 51.2 vs street 50.9 UK 60.0 vs street 62 0 Brazil 52.3 vs previous 52.1 Other announcements: 10:00 am EST Canada interest rate 1.00% no change expected 10:00 am EST United States non-manu PMI street 55.0 vs previous 55.4 10:00 am EST US new home sales street 429K 10:30 am EST US crude oil inventories street (0.5 mmbbls) 10:30 am EST US gasoline inventories street 1.25 mmbbls 2:00 pm EST US beige book Economic reports due later today include: 9:45 am EST US ISM New York street 59.3