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Commentary: Stocks pause but indices remain vulnerable
00:00, 27 January 2014
Asia Pacific markets kicked off the week with a big selloff following through on Friday’s US retreat but since that washed through the markets, things have started to stabilize a bit. European indices are mixed with the Dax and CAC slightly positive while the FTSE and IBEX continue to fall. US indices also appear to be heading for a moderately higher open. Currency markets today are seeing Dollars rebound with the more depressed AUD, NZD and CAD leading the bounce while defensives like gold, CHF, JPY and silver giving back some of their recent gains. While generally positive German IFO survey results and Caterpillar earnings appear to be helping shore up support today, this appears to be more of a common pause or technical rebound within a larger downtrend than the start of something new. Gold holding above $1,260 and USDCAD remaining above $1.1000 suggest that many markets are retesting their recent breakout and breakdown points and confirming recent trend changes. In the UK, GBP rallying and the FTSE falling suggest that despite recent comments from Governor Carney that guidance may need to be adjusted soon, traders still expect the Bank of England to make a move toward normalizing monetary policy sooner than had previously been thought. Today is fairly light on news until Apple reports after the close tonight, but all eyes remain firmly focused on Wednesday’s FOMC and RBNZ meetings for indications of how consistent (for the Fed) or how aggressive (for the RBNZ) central banks may be this year in normalizing monetary policy through tapering or interest rate increases. It appears unlikely that the recent slide in stocks will have any impact on the FOMC decision because the longer the Fed waits the more difficult it may be to get stocks to kick their liquidity habit. Corporate News Caterpillar $1.54 vs street $1.27, F2014 sales guidance plus or minus 5% from 2013 sales of $56B Potash, Mosaic, Agrium Canpotex reached a deal to sell 700,000 metric tonnes to China in H12014 at current market rates Apple reports tonight after US markets close Economic News Significant economic announcements released yesterday afternoon and overnight include: Germany IFO Bus climate 110.6 vs street 110.0 Germany IFO current assess 112.4 as expected Germany IFO expectations 108.9 vs street 108.0 Japan trade balance (¥1,302B) vs street (¥1,239B) Economic reports due later today include: 10:00 am EST US new home sales street 455K