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Commentary: Soft PMI weighs on trading ahead of China data
00:00, 06 January 2014
The selling pressure in the wake of soft service PMI numbers that knocked Asia Pacific indices and copper down yesterday has continued to a lesser extent through the European and North American trading sessions. In addition to China and Australia, the US, UK and Germany all fell short of street expectations. Spain was the only major country to post a significant positive surprise and found its IBEX to be the top performer among major world indices on the day. The PMI numbers have raised some concern about the health of the global economy heading into an environment where central banks may not be as accommodative following the lead of the Fed’s tapering program which starts this month. While stocks have been soft, currencies have been mixed. USD has been in free fall since its non-manufacturing PMI missed expectations. JPY has capitalized on this Traders now appear to be looking ahead to the major announcements expected this week for confirmation or rejection of the PMI weakness. China’s main basket of indicators is due Wednesday and Thursday which may influence trading in Australian and Chinese indices, copper, plus AUD and NZD. For the US, the focus is on payroll numbers with ADP on Wednesday and nonfarm on Friday. In Europe, the focus is on monetary policy with German job numbers due out today ahead of the BoE and ECB meetings on Thursday. Economic News Service PMI reports include: US 53.0 vs street 54.6 UK 58.8 vs street 60.0 Germany 53.5 vs street 54.0 France 47.8 vs street 47.4 Italy 47.9 vs street 48.7 Spain 54.2 vs previous 51.5 Highlights of overnight announcements include: Singapore Electronics sector index 50.1 vs street 51.0 Singapore PMI 49.7 vs street 51.0 US factory orders 1.8% vs street 1.7% Canada raw material prices (4.1%) vs street (1.8%) Canada Industrial prices 0.1% vs street (0.2%) Upcoming significant announcements include: 2:30 pm PST US Senate confirmation vote on Yellen nomination for Fed Chair 11:30 am AEST Australia trade balance street ($300 million) 7:00 am GMT Germany retail sales previous (0.2%) 8:55 am GMT Germany unemployment chnge street (1K) 8:55 am GMT Germany unemployment rate street 6.9% 8:30 am EST US trade balance street ($40B) 8:30 am EST Canada trade balance street ($0.1B) 10:00 am EST Canada Ivey PMI street 54.5 vs previous 53.7