Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
Commentary: Oil retrenches, stocks rally on Iran Nuclear Deal
00:00, 25 November 2013
One would think that any weekend that featured a headline under the topic “Peace in the Middle East” would be followed by a major collapse in the oil price particularly for Brent, rather than the notable but not unusual 1-2% drop that we have seen so far. There are two possible reasons for this. 1) The 17.5% drop in WTI and the 12.5% drop in Brent since August has already priced in a significant reduction in political risk. 2) The limited decline and both crudes holding channel (WTI) or trend (Brent) support indicates the street recognizes that this is only a first stage deal which offers a small amount of sanctions relief ($7 billion) in return for co-operation over a six month period to give time for a broader arrangement to be worked out (or not). This initial deal does not appear to pave the way for a big immediate in Iranian oil exports, but traders need to be aware that increased production would likely be part of a bigger future deal which could limit upside to near-term trading bounces. Overall, the weekend nuclear deal with Iran appears to be seen as a step in the right direction. Gold has been under pressure today Gold, CHF and JPY are all down on the day as demand for havens subsides with political risks easing. The oil sensitive NOK and CAD are also among the underperformers. Stocks are surging ahead again on the news, with Israel’s Tel Aviv market (TA-25) Index trading up to an all-time high today at one point. Japan, Australia and Europe also have rallied to start the week and US indices appear to be heading for an open above 1,800 for the S&P and near 16,100 for the Dow. European indices have been getting a boost from ECB governor Hansson that the central bank could cut borrowing costs further if needed, keeping them in the dovish camp. This weekend’s appears to have Americans in a good mood heading into the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. A flurry of US economic releases are scheduled for Wednesday then their focus shifts to turkey, football and shopping while the global trading focus turns to Japan where a number of key data releases are scheduled toward the end of the week. Economic News Significant economic announcements released yesterday afternoon and overnight include: Spain producer prices (0.2%) vs street 0.1% Singapore consumer prices 2.0% vs street 2.1% Economic reports due later today include: 10:00 am EDT US pending home sales street (1.0%) 10:30 am EDT US Dallas Fed street 5.0 vs previous 3.6