Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
Commentary: Make or break day for natural gas
00:00, 09 January 2014
Overnight trading has seen markets reverse much of yesterday’s moves. Markets that sold off yesterday like the Dow, FTSE gold and oil have clawed back much of their recent losses but not more, while markets that rallied yesterday like USD have dropped back a bit. This remains a traders market with most players clearly fixated on tomorrow’s US nonfarm payrolls report. Slightly better than expected jobless claims keep the pot boiling. The Bank of England and ECB stayed the course today. GBP has picked up slightly against USD while continental currencies like EUR, CHF, NOK and SEK have posted more significant rebounds. The IBEX and MIB continue their breakout rallies on anticipation that peripheral economies will continue to rebound this year even though more weak data out of Greece indicates they aren’t out of the woods by any stretch. CAD continues to underperform other resource majors as expectations that the US may outperform Canada this year after several years of Canada on top continues to shift capital flows between the two countries. AUD and NZD have also been soft overnight after Chinese inflation came in weaker than expected suggesting its economy remains sluggish. Today could be a make or break day for natural gas. Another big storage drawdown is expected for last week and next week’s number could be big as well due to the Arctic Vortex that sent temperatures plunging across consuming regions this week. The price, however, has been showing signs of topping suggesting that this winter’s heating demand may have already been priced in and the street may already be looking toward shoulder season. The reaction to today’s storage report may give a better idea if this year’s seasonal rally still has any legs left in it or not. Economic News Significant economic announcements released yesterday afternoon and overnight include: UK interest rate 0.50% no change as expected UK QE target £375B no change as expected ECB interest rate 0.25% no change as expected South Korea interest rate 2.50% no change as expected US jobless claims 330K vs street 335K US Challenger layoffs (5.9%) vs previous (20.6%) Canada housing starts 189K vs street 190K UK trade balance (£3.2B) vs street (£2.3B) Germany industrial production 3.5% vs street 3.0% Greece industrial production (6.1%) vs previous (5.2%) Greece unemployment rate 27.8% vs previous 27.4% China consumer prices 2.5% vs street 2.7% China producer prices (1.4%) vs street (1.3%) Australia retail sales 0.7% vs street 0.4% Australia building approvals 22.2% vs street 21.1% Economic reports due later today include: 10:30 am EST US natural gas storage street (153 BCF)