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Commentary: Focus turns to PMI reports for global growth confirmation
00:00, 22 January 2014
The improving global economy and earnings reports remained the main drivers through today’s European and North American sessions. GBP had a sterling day, rallying on the back of a strong UK employment report that saw the unemployment fall to 7.1% nearing the Bank of England’s 7.0% threshold for action much sooner than had previously been thought. AUD also remained strong through the day after on speculation that rising Australian inflation may cause the RBA to think twice about cutting interest rates again. On the other hand, the Loonie was crushed following today’s Bank of Canada meeting with USDCAD breaking out over $1.1000 and CADUSD testing $0.9000 both big psychological hurdles. Although it held the overnight rate steady at 1.00%, the Bank indicated that inflation risks to the downside are increasing and it now expects inflation to remain below its 2.00% target for the next two years. The street clearly took the statement about its next move being dependent on data as leaving the door open to a potential interest rate cut if needed. Energy commodities had another spectacular day with Polar vortex heating demand sending natural gas to a new 52-week high and crude oil continuing to bask in the afterglow of Tuesday’s IMF upgrade to its global growth forecasts sparking speculation resource demand may also increase. Traders now turn to today’s NZ and flash PMI reports for confirmation of the positive economic sentiment that has been building this week. New Zealand business PMI dipped slightly but not enough to impact monetary policy. China’s result could influence trading in today’s Asia Pacific session while the US result may influence tapering speculation with the next FOMC meeting under a week away. Indices were flat to moderately lower on increasing signs that the liquidity party may be coming to an end everywhere except Japan with US tapering underway and interest rate increases from the Bank of England and RBNZ possible this year. Traders appear to be taking positive earnings in stride while punishing companies that fall short such as AMD, IBM and Coach today alone. Tomorrow could be active for tech stocks again with big news out aftermarket from NetFlix, SanDisk and eBay. Corporate News Netflix $0.79 vs street $0.65, guides Q1 $0.78 vs street $0.75, planning European expansion eBay $0.81 vs street $0.80, Carl Icahn has bought a 0.82% stak and nominated two directors and proposed a spinoff of PayPal into a separate company SanDisk $1.71 vw street $1.58, revenue $1.73B vs street $1.70B Western Digital $2.19 vs street $2.08 Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: NZ business PMI 56.4 vs previous 56.7 Canada interest rate decision street 1.00% no change expected UK jobless claims (24K) vs street (32K) UK unemployment rate 7.1% vs street 7.3% Bank of England minutes voted 9-0 to continue current interest rate and QE levels UK public sector net borrowing £10.3B vs street £12.3B Upcoming significant announcements include: 10:45 am AEDT China flash PMI previous 50.5 8:00 am GMT France flash manuf PMI street 47.5 8:00 am GMT France flash service PMI street 48.0 8:30 am GMT Germany flash manuf PMI street 54.7 8:30 am GMT Germany flash service PMI street 54.0 8:30 am EST US jobless claims street 330K 8:30 am EST Canada retail sales street 0.3% 8:58 am EST US flash manuf PMI street 55.0 10:00 am EST US existing home sales street 4.9M 10:00 am EST US leading indicators street 0.2% 10:30 am EST US natural gas street (112BCF) 11:00 am EST US crude oil inventories street 0.7 mmbbbls 11:00 am EST US gasoline inventories previous 6.18mmbbls