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Commentary: Fed continuity and China reforms boost risk markets
00:00, 15 November 2013
Stock markets in China, Japan and Australia rallied overnight and this positive momentum has carried through into European and North American trading this morning. Bulls have been given a boost by dovish comments this week from Fed Chair nominee Janet Yellen, indicating that she believes the Fed has more work to do in order to strengthen the economy and suggesting that QE may continue for some time to come. Soft Empire manufacturing data this morning supports the case for delayed tapering. The first concrete follow up reform announcement out of China following the Third Plenum meeting related to easing one-child restrictions has also encouraged traders who have started to anticipate again that more reforms may be on the way. November has historically been one of the stronger months of the year for stocks and these developments may continue to put a tailwind behind stocks and other risk markets. While US indices continue to march toward new all-time highs resource currencies are also outperforming particularly NOK, NZD, SEK, AUD and CAD. On the other hand, traditional defensives are underperforming with gold flat and JPY and CHF retreating suggesting that capital has started to move back out into risk markets once again on anticipation of a growing global economy still supported by central bank stimulus for a while yet. Corporate News Nordstrom $0.69 vs street $0.67, raised guidance to $3.65 to $3.70 from $3.60-780 Agilent $0.81 vs street $0.76 Economic News Significant economic announcements released yesterday afternoon and overnight include: US Empire manufacturing (2.21) vs street 5.00 Canada manufacturing sales 0.6% vs street 0.5% Singapore retail sales (5.9%) vs street (4.4%) Singapore ex auto (0.3%) vs street 1.8% Eurozone consumer prices 0.7% as expected Economic reports due later today include: 9:00 am EST Canada existing home sales previous 0.8% 9:15 am EST US industrial production street 0.2% 9:15 am EST US manufacturing prodn street 0.2%