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Commentary: Falling commodities, RBA comments drag AUD back down
00:00, 10 March 2014
Shockwaves from China’s disappointing trade and loan numbers have continued to rattle markets through the European and US trading sessions. The commodity selloff has broadened from metals into energy with traders lowering their outlook for resource demand once again. US crude has particularly hard as Brent crude received a cushion from its political risk premium. Heating oil and natural gas have been falling with home heating season winding down. US indices are trading lower today off of a combination of disappointment over China and the growing realization that last week’s strong US PMI and nonfarm payrolls mean the Fed has no reason to stop tapering at this time. Falling metal prices have impacted base metal mining stocks today with Cliffs and Freeport among the worst performers in the US while Teck Resources and First Quantum have underperformed in Canada. AUD has continued to underperform other majors overnight, even sliding against other resource dollars like NZD and CAD, as it continues to respond to RBA Governor Stevens’ attempt to talk down the dollar last week. CAD has stabilized following Friday’s big selloff. NZD continues to attract support from traders anticipating a 0.25% OCR increase at this week’s RBNZ meeting. Today, AUD NZD and JPY could all be active with a number of data announcements plus a Bank of Japan meeting scheduled. We may also continue to see reaction to China’s numbers and positioning ahead of the release of Chinese retail sales and industrial production later in the week. The situation in Crimea continues to simmer ahead of Sunday’s referendum and could flare up again at any time. Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: Canada housing starts 192K vs street 190K France industrial production (0.1%) vs street 1.3% France manufacturing production 1.4% as expected Spain industrial production 1.1% vs street 1.8% Italy industrial production 1.4% vs street 0.3% Greece consumer prices (0.9%) vs street (1.4%) Upcoming significant announcements include: 7:00 am AEDT NZ house prices previous (2.4%) 7:00 am AEDT NZ house sales previous (4.3%) 11:30 am AEDT Australia business confidence previous 8 11:30 am AEDT Australia business conditions previous 4 TBA India exports previous 3.8% TBA India imports previous (18.0%) 3:00 pm ish AEDT Japan monetary policy decision no changes to interest rates or QE expected 12:00 am GMT UK same store sales street 1.8% vs previous 3.9% 7:00 am GMT Germany trade balance street €15.0B 9:00 am GMT Italy GDP street (0.8%) 9:30 am GMT UK industrial production street 3.0% vs previous 1.8% 9:30 am GMT UK manufacturing production street 3.3% 10:00 am GMT Greece GDP street (2.6%) 3:00 pm GMT UK GDP estimate street 0.8% 8:00 am EDT Brazil industrial production street (3.4%)