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Commentary: Commodities and Dollars continue to climb
00:00, 10 December 2013
Signs of recovery across many regions combined with Fed comments yesterday suggesting that the central bank will not taper at the price of deflation continues to drive a big rebound in commodity markets led by precious metals including copper, gold and platinum. While precious metals respond to monetary factors, cyclical commodities such as copper and crude oil continue to respond to the prospects for increased resource demand from a growing global economy. While growth in the UK and US have attracted the biggest headlines, signs of improvement in China and stability at least in Europe may also become increasingly important. Improving sentiment toward the global economy has sent AUD to the top of the league table. NZD had been strong but has slipped back a bit perhaps on concern that too quick of a recovery could upset the RBNZ and encourage it to reconsider intervening in FX trading at its meeting tomorrow. In addition to any comments on the dollar, traders may also be looking for indications of whether it is thinking about raising interest rates in 2014 and if so when? With the Fed now going into its usual pre-meeting blackout for speeches and data flow light, stock markets continue to backslide as traders take profits ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. It’s relatively quiet for news today but tomorrow the focus turns to the Southern Hemisphere with the RBNZ and Australia jobs report dominating the schedule. Economic News Highlights of overnight announcements include: Italy GDP (1.8%) vs street (1.9%) France industrial production 0.0% vs street 0.3% France manufacturing production 0.7% vs street 0.2% Italy industrial output (0.5%) vs street (2.2%) Greece industrial production (5.2%) vs previous (1.8%) UK industrial production 3.2% as expected UK manufacturing production 2.7% vs street 2.9% UK trade balance (£9.7B) vs street (£9.3B) UK NIESR GDP estimate 0.8% vs previous 0.7% Upcoming significant announcements include: 8:00 am AEST South Korea unemployment rate street 3.0% 10:30 am AEST Australia consumer confidence street 110.3 10:50 am AEST Japan machine orders street 15.0% TBA China new Yuan loans street 580B 7:00 am GMT Germany consumer prices street 1.3% 10:00 am GMT Greece unemployment rate previous 27.3% 10:30 am EST US crude oil inventories street (3.0 mmbbs) 10:30 am EST US gasoline inventories street 2.0 mmbbls