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Clone of Local News Dominates
00:00, 31 July 2013
Markets are all about local news at the moment. With so many globally important events over the next week – FOMC meeting, China PMI, non-farm payrolls, European CPI and PPI, China IP, CPI and PPI – macro drivers are on hold, leaving individual investment factors to dominate. Currency markets are calm, with USD, JPY, EUR and GBP little changed over the last 24 hours. AUD continues to weaken in light of central bank comments about the desirability of a lower currency, and some (speculative) interpretations that the governor is pointing to a rate cut next week. Energy commodities remain under pressure. West Texas crude is holding just above U$103, but Brent crude, gasoline and heating oil continue to yield some of the ground gained over the last fortnight. Precious metals are higher, although silver’s industrial usages appear to offer more support, pushing it up 1% versus gold’s 2/3 % lift. Soybeans are a feature, with a volume surge on futures accompanying firmer prices. Share markets are mixed after yesterday’s European gains. US markets are flat to down in the absence of any spectacular “beats”. In Asia it’s a similarly mixed story. China shares are up as bears capitulate ahead of the news flow, Japan’s index resumed its downward path. In this macro vacuum, exaggerated reactions to results announcements are possible. Facebook has rallied to within $1.00 of its $38.00 per share IPO price from last year, having gained 40% since last week’s earnings report. Last night reports circulated suggesting FB may be preparing to launch a service to air commercials through its site. The European session was focused on the banking sector as Barclays fell 5.7% on news of a larger than expected rights issue, while Deutsche Bank fell 3.9% on a surprise earnings disappointment. In US trading the fertilizer sector plunged after Uralkali broke from its selling group and suggested prices could fall to under $300/tonne from $400 currently. Intrepid potash fell 28.8% while Potash Corp dropped 19.5% and Mosaic fell 19.1%. A number of US stocks fell after reporting earnings including Coach down 7.4%, US Steel down 6.8% and Occidental Petroleum down 3.4%. Western Union rallied 6.8%. Aftermarket earnings reports from North America included: Cdn Oil Sands $0.45 vs street $0.52 Amgen $1.89 vs street $1.74. raised full year guidance to $7.30-$7.45 from $7.05-$7.35 Symantec $0.44 vs street $0.36 Today the UK banks take a break but there are still a number of major reports scheduled including: EADS is expected to report adjusted earnings of €0.59 for Q2, up from €0.42 last quarter. The shares are trading close to their 52-week high and the news could mean the difference between a breakout and a double top. Italy’s Finmeccania is also scheduled to report. Brewer Diageo is expected to report EPS of £1.02 for the quarter after beating the street by a couple of pence last time around. Shares have been pulling back from another lower high so the street may be looking for a positive report to help shore up support. Centrica PLC is expected to report earnings of £0.14 from its operations in the UK and Canada. Shares are trading near the middle of a 350p to 400p range. It’s another big day for earnings reports out of the energy sector, already reeling from yesterday’s disappointing reports from COS, BP and OXY: Tullow Oil is expected to report adjusted EPS of £0.63 down 10% over year. Shares are trading just above 1000p and their 52-week low so expectations already appear to be quite low. Suncor Energy is expected to generate adjusted EPS of $0.63 for Q2. It earned $0.90 in the previous quarter which had come in way ahead of the $0.76 the street had expected. Shares are in the upper half of a $28.00 to $35.00 trading channel. Talisman Energy shares have been stuck in a $11.00 to $13.00 trading range for six months now so expectation already appear low. The company is expected to break even on an adjusted basis, and rebound from a surprise $0.13 per share loss last quarter. There are another huge number of releases in the US tomorrow led by MasterCard, Metlife, Phillips 66 and others. Of particular note could be Garmin which has been climbing up out of a base in recent weeks. The GPS device producer is expected to post EPS of $0.65, down 33% over year but up from $0.45 last quarter. Traders may take particular interest in guidance for signs of recovery potential.