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China GDP could rock the markets today

CMC Markets

It’s been a relatively quiet start to the trading week so far with US markets closed for Martin Luther King Day. European indices have been steady with the Dax trading near all-time highs as traders continue to anticipate that the ECB may unveil a big new QE stimulus program at its meeting on Thursday. Today, Denmark’s central bank, which also has its currency pegged to EUR, moved deeper into negative territory on interest rates, which as seen as a sign of preparation to defend its policy in the event of a new ECB stimulus program. The Danish move on negative rates was similar to the Swiss decision last week on interest rates, but the Danes decided to maintain the EURDKK peg, possibly having learned from what the Swiss decision to drop the EURCHF peg did to the markets. CHF, meanwhile dropped back a bit in today’s trading as it continues to search for a level that would bring bulls and bears back into balance following the earthquake SNB decision that had such a huge impact. Commodities, particularly copper and crude oil, along with the Hang Seng, have been falling to start the week and could be particularly active around today’s China GDP report. The street is expecting GDP to come in below the government’s 7.5% target but the big question is how far below and what that might mean for their 2015 target? AUD, NZD and the S&P/ASX could also be active on the China news which also includes retail sales and industrial production. Don’t forget that because of the Lunar New Year holiday, China data is usually pretty light between these January reports and the March report so this news may attract particular attention from traders trying to figure out where China is heading and what that could mean for commodity demand. Corporate News There has been no major corporate news this afternoon Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: Denmark Central Bank surprise interest rate cut to (0.2%) from (0.05%), no plans to drop EUR/DKK peg Upcoming significant announcements include: 1:00 pm AEDT China GDP street 7.2% 1:00 pm AEDT China retail sales street 11.7% 1:00 pm AEDT China industrial production street 7.4% 7:00 am GMT Germany producer prices street (1.4%) 10:00 am GMT Germany ZEW current street 13.0 10:00 am GMT Germany ZEW expectations street 40.0 8:30 am EDT Canada manufacturing sales street (0.5%) 10:00 am EDT US NAHB housing index street 58

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