After popping to start the week, stocks were quite through the North America session but there has been a lot of action in commodities and particularly currencies. USD has eased back as Fed rate hike speculation fates opening the door for resource dollars like NZD, AUD and CAD to rally. JPY has also been picking up steam ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting gaining on USD, EUR and GBP.
Asia Pacific Indices
Australia 200 has encountered some resistance near 5,300 with more possible near 5,330 a Fibonacci level. Support has moved up toward 5,275 from 5,190. RSI indicates downward pressure easing.
Japan 225 keeps slip-sliding backward, drifting from near 16,470 back toward 16,340 before finding some support above 16,325 a Fibonacci level and rebounding toward 16,390. RSI indicates downward momentum remains intact.
Hong Kong 50 has bounced up off 23,400 a Fibonacci level toward the 23,520 to 23.580 area just above the middle of a broad 23,000 to 24,000 trading range.
North American and European Indices
US 30 continues to climb toward the top of a 17,900 to 18,300 range where it has stabilized following a correction. Higher lows for the index and the RSI suggested accumulation has resumed. Next potential resistance on a breakout at its 50-day average near 18,440.
US NDAQ 100 is testing key channel resistance near 4,840 which could end in a major breakout or a quadruple top. So far the latter appears to be the case with RSI peaking at a lower high indicating upward momentum weakening. Next upside resistance possible in the 4,980 to 5,000 area where a measured move and round number converge.
US SPX 500 is still stabilizing in the 2,120 to 2,155 area where support has come back in as downward pressure eases. Initial resistance on a rebound appears possible near 2,170 and the 50-day average.
UK 100 is turning back upward, clearing its 50-day average near 6,775 and rallying toward 6,800 with next potential resistance near 6,825 then 6,860 and 6,930. RSI back above 50 confirms momentum turning upward.
Germany 30 is up off Friday’s low near 10,235 trading above 10,300 in the 10,340 to 10,370 range. Downward pressure appears to be levelling off but it still needs to retake its 50-day average near 10,405 to call off the current downtrend.
Gold continues to struggle with $1,320 resistance drifting back toward $1,314, but support remains in place above a Fibonacci cluster in the $1,290-$1,300 area and 40 on the RSI indicating the primary trend remains sideways for now.
Crude Oil WTI successfully retested support at the bottom of its current $42.50 to $47.50 trading range and has started to rebound, trading up toward $43.50 with next potential resistance at its 50-day average near $44.30 then the $45.00 level. RSI stabilizing near 40 also suggests recent downdraft may be ending.
US Dollar Index has run into resistance near 96.00 with more possible near 96.25. RSI also suggests upward momentum may be levelling off. Initial support possible near 95.75 then 95.50 in a correction.
EURUSD is starting to break down, sliding back under $1.1200 and testing its 50 and 200-day averages plus an uptrend line near $1.1140 with next support possible near $1.1120 then $1.1060. RSI back under 50 suggests momentum turning downward.
GBPUSD remains well supported above $1.3000 trading between $1.3020 and $1.3070 with initial support possible at its 50-day average near $1.3140. RSI holding a higher low indicates recent correction has run its course. Should declines resume, next potential support appears near $1.2920.
NZDUSD remains in an uptrend, steadily advancing above 50-day average support. RSI holding 50 confirms underlying momentum intact. Back above $0.7300 next resistance appears near $0.7340 then $0.7380 with support rising toward $0.7260.
AUDUSD continues its upswing clearing $0.7500 again and bouncing toward the $0.7540 to $0.7570 area with next potential resistance near $0.7580 and its 50-day average. RSI advancing on 50 indicates momentum turning back upward.
USDSGD continues to bounce around between $1.3600 and $1.37600 digesting recent gains with next support near $1.3515 in a pullback. RSI rollover suggests upward momentum slowing a bit but underlying uptrend intact for now.
USDJPY remains in a downtrend trading near 101.80 well below its 50-day average with next potential support near 101.00 then the big 100.00 round number. RSI falling back under 50 signals momentum turning downward again.
GBPJPY continues to drift downward sliding under 133.00 toward 132.50 with next significant support near 130.00. RSI falling away from 50 confirms downward pressure increasing.
EURJPY is testing uptrend support near 113.60 having dropped back from 115.00 a round number and Fibonacci level. RSI breaking an uptrend and 50 signals a significant downturn in momentum.
CADJPY remains in a downtrend with resistance falling toward 77.40 from 78.00 and the pair trading just above 77.00 with next potential support near 76.10. Falling RSI indicates downward momentum increasing.
USDCAD is starting to roll over, having faltered near $1.3240 just short of its 200-day average. The pair has dropped back into the $1.3180 to $1.3200 area with next potential support near $1.3100 then the 50-day average near $1.3035. RSI rolling over indicates upward momentum weakening.
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