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CAD takes off while US indices stabilize heading into holidays

CMC Markets

Overseas markets have had a really tough session today as they catch up with yesterday’s big selloff in North America and respond to deteriorating economies in Europe. The DAX and S&P ASX have been among the hardest hit, both falling over 2% with other major indices in Japan and across Europe down over 1% on the day. US markets also traded lower overnight but have been gaining ground this morning. There hasn’t been any major economic news out of the US overnight so this could be some short covering or bargain hunting ahead of the weekend. Yesterday saw stocks retreat with traders taking profits against positive earnings reports from Alcoa and Pepsi, today we will see if that continues or if we get a rebound. We also will see if there is any follow through on Gap or AMD which sold off on CEO changes. Today we will also get an idea of what level of tolerance the street has for profit warnings this quarter as the respond to guidance cuts from Juniper and Microchip. Currency markets are mixed today with AUD falling on a surprise decline in home loans and NOK down on soft inflation indicating the Norges bank is under no pressure to raise rates. Gold is dropping back slightly as USD rebounds a bit. JPY is the top performing as it’s big rebound from deeply oversold conditions continues. Crude oil is down again which may be impacting NOK but has not held back CAD which is soaring this morning. The loonie took off after Canada posted a huge 74K increase in jobs and most importantly a 69K increase in full-time jobs. Canada job numbers have been all over the place in recent months but this does appear to suggest that strong growth in the US economy and US employment may finally be spilling over into Canada, which often lags through the cycle. Through the day today and over the weekend, there are another ton of central bankers speaking. The most important may be ECB President Draghi’s press conference on Saturday where the amount of grilling may indicate how much pressure the ECB is under to really take action with the wheels falling off the German economic bandwagon. It’s a holiday weekend in North America with Canada closed for the Thanksgiving national holiday on Monday. In the US, government offices and banks are closed Monday for Columbus Day but stock markets will be open. Because of this we could see some position squaring through the day, with the potential for some volatility in the afternoon. Corporate News Symantec to split its security and information management business into two separate companies. Juniper Networks profit warning! Cuts EPS guidance to $0.34 to $0.36 from $0.35 to $0.40 and below street $0.38. Blames lower demand in US Microchip reports revenue of $546M well short of guidance $560-$575M and street $566M Family Dollar $0.73 vs street $0.77 Economic News Economic reports released overnight and this morning include: Canada employment change street 20K vs previous (11K) Canada full-time jobs previous (2K) Canada part-time jobs previous (9K) Canada unemployment rate street 7.0% UK trade balance (£1.9B) vs street (£3.0B) UK construction output (3.9%) street 2.9% Greece industrial production (5.7%) vs street 2.7% Sweden unemployment rate 4.2% vs street 4.3% France industrial production (0.3%) vs street (1.0%) France manufacturing prodn (0.6%) vs street (0.7%) Norway producer prices (3.8%) vs previous (3.3%) Norway consumer prices 2.1% vs street 2.4% Italy industrial production (3.7%) vs previous (1.9%) Australia home loans (0.9%) vs street 0.2% Japan consumer confidence 39.9 vs street 41.8 Economic reports due later today include: FOMC members Plosser, George, Fisher and Lacker, ECB Constancio and Linde, and Norges Bank Governor Olsen all speaking in the US on Friday. Saturday, FOMC members Tarullo, Evans, Fischer and Williams speaking plus ECB President Draghi holds a press conference. Sunday, Riskbank Governor Ingves participates in a panel discussion. TBA weekend China trade balance street $41.0B

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