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CAD rallies on Bank of Canada statement, GBP and EUR weaken into meetings

CMC Markets

It has been another active day for resource markets have had another busy day. The loonie has been particularly strong, rallying against USD and EUR as the Bank of Canada not only joined the RBA in the one cut and done camp but in the statement, Governor Poloz kept a firmly neutral tone, not even hinting at possible future cuts. This caused dollar doves to scramble to get back on side. CAD may also have received a boost from a rebound in WTI, which rallied despite a big increase in US oil inventories. These gains appear to mainly be due to a narrowing of the spread between WTI and Brent (which held near $60.00) back under $10.00 and down to around $9.00. The narrowing in the spread may also partly explain why the WTI sensitive CAD outperformed the Brent sensitive NOK in such a big way today. On the other hand, EUR and GBP both weakened relative to dollars (USD, CAD, AUD, NZD) ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England and ECB meetings. No changes are expected from either central bank, but while the ECB is clearly stimulative, even standing pat keeps the BoE in a dovish position relative to the Fed at this point in time. Traders may look to ECB President Draghi’s press conference for more details on the QE program that is expected to start this month. In stock action today, European indices like the FTSE and Dax were able to claw back early losses and finish in positive territory. In contrast, US indices continues to retreat. US ADP payrolls and service PMI numbers were close to expectations and along with the Beige Book indicated that the economy continues to grow, keeping the Fed on track for a midyear liftoff for interest rates. In the Beige Book regional report, it was noted that oil and gas related employment fell in some regions, but at the same time, several regions noted a shortage of truck drivers boosting wages. This, along with a jump in Eurozone retail suggests that some of the positive benefits of the oil prices are starting to crop up here and there. AUD and the S&P/ASX may be active again today with Australian trade and retail sales numbers due. With the PDAC convention wrapping up today we may see news out of the mining sector start to drop off. Corporate News There have been no major corporate announcements so far this afternoon. Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: Canada interest rate 0.75% no change expected US crude oil inventory 10.3 mmbbls vsstreet 3.9 mmbbls US ADP payrolls street 220K vs previous 213K Eurozone retail sales 1.1% vs street 0.1% Service PMI reports: US Markit 57.1 vs street 57.0 US ISM 56.9 vs street 56.5 Spain 56.2 vs street 56.6 Italy 50.0 vs street 51.4 France 53.4 as expected Germany 54.7 vs street 55.5 Eurozone 53.7 vs street 53.9 UK 56.7 vs street 57.5 Upcoming significant announcements include: 11:30 am AEDT Australia retail sales street 0.4% 11:30 am AEDT Australia trade balance street ($950M) 7:00 am GMT Germany factory orders street (1.0%) 9:00 am GMT Italy GDP street (0.3%) 12:00 pm GMT UK interest rate 0.50% no change expected 12:45 pm GMT ECB interest rate and QE no change expected 1:30 pm GMT ECB President Draghi press conference 8:30 am EST US jobless claims street 295K 10:00 am EST US factory orders street 0.2% 10:00 am EST Canada Ivey PMI previous 42.6

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