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CAD breakout leads resource dollar rally

CMC Markets

The loonie has attracted a lot of new attention over the last couple of days with traders taking another look at Canada in response to Burger King’s planned purchase of Tim Hortons. The interest goes far beyond the demand for Canadian dollars that would be needed to pay shareholders. The deal has shaken up perceptions about Canada in a big way. Who would have thought of Canada as a tax haven? Really? (I’m still pinching myself from time to time to be sure I’m not dreaming this). The deal reminds the world that even with its recent sluggishness on jobs, Canada remains an attractive country with a stable political and banking system, economy and apparently a low business tax rate. This week’s deal has also kicked off speculation that more inversion deals could be on their way that could increase demand for loonies even further. CAD has broken out today, calling off a head and shoulders pattern that had been forming. It may remain active through the rest of the week with US GDP Thursday and Canada GDP Friday giving traders a chance to compare momentum in the two economies. NZD and AUD have also been climbing today, joining the resource dollar party as USD has paused for a rest along with US stocks ahead of tomorrow’s US GDP report. NZD appears to be staging an overdue technical bounce from oversold conditions with yesterday’s poor New Zealand food price data apparently sparking a round of profit taking on short positions. It’s another quiet day for news in Asia Pacific countries but news flow picks up again tomorrow with the release of Japan’s main basket of monthly indicators heading into next week’s PMI reports and RBA meeting. The Hang Seng has dropped back under 25,000 and how it acts over the next day or so may indicate if current trading is a consolidation or a correction. Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: US crude oil inventories street (2.5 mmbbls) Sweden consumer confidence 96.9 vs street 101.0 Sweden manuf confidence 106.7 vs street 101.0 Sweden trade balance SEK 1.9B vs street 3.8B Norway unemployment rate 3.3% vs street 3.2% Turkey interest rate decision 8.25% no change as expected Upcoming significant announcements include: 11:00 am AEST Australia new home sales previous 1.2% 11:30 am AEST China industrial profits previous 17.9% 8:00 am BST Spain GDP street 1.2% 8:00 am BST Spain consumer prices street (0.6%) vs previous (0.3%) 8:30 am BST Sweden retail sales street 4.3% 8:55 am BST Germany unemployment change street (5K) 8:55 am BST Germany unemployment rate street 6.7% 9:00 am BST Italy retail sales street (0.6%) 11:00 am BST UK CBI sales street 27 1:00 pm BST Germany consumer prices street 0.8% 8:30 am EDT US GDP update street 3.9% 8:30 am EDT US core PCE inflation street 2.0% 8:30 am EDT US jobless claims street 300K 10:00 am EDT US pending home sales street (4.0%) 10:30 am EDT US natural gas street 77 BCF

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