Aftershocks from last week's Brexit earthquake continue to rattle windows through world financial markets to start the new week. Unlike Friday's action that saw a tsunami sink most boats, today's market reaction has been more patchy as the initial knee-jerk reaction fades and traders focus on the different implications for different markets.
Stock market performance has been very mixed. Japan's Nikkei finished up 2.3% while Shanghai and Australia also finished in the green. In Europe, the FTSE is down another 1.3% less than the 1.6% drop in the Dax. Spain's IBEX which was really hammered Friday is down less, falling 1.0% after the incumbent euro friendly People's Party gained seats in the new parliament at the expense of Euroskeptic parties. In North America, US index futures are down about 0.6%.
Among stocks, pressure remains focused on the banking sector, seen as vulnerable to political uncertainty. Unelected EU officials appear bent on pushing Britain out the door as fast as possible seemingly in order to punish Britons for daring to believe in democracy and oppose them plus to scare other countries out trying to leave as well. Elected officials like German PM Merkel and Leave spokesperson Boris Johnson aren't in as much of a rush, indicating cooler heads may eventually prevail especially since both sides will still need to deal with each other after the divorce.
UK Chancellor Osborne also toned down his negative rhetoric today dropping his plan for an emergency austerity budget. For now there still appears to be quite a bit of political turmoil with the conservatives looking for a new leader, an open revolt against Labour Leader underway and Scotland hinting at another referendum, which also leans toward a longer, more orderly Brexit process.
Currency markets are mixed today. GBP continues to weaken as traders search for a new seek a new level. JPY is up against GBP and EUR but steady against USD. Gold is up again, WTI crude remains under pressure although a 1% decline is a lot less than Friday’s plunge. Resource currencies like CAD and AUD have stabilized along with commodity prices. So far central banks have not openly intervened in the markets but it remains a possibility. This suggests that while we' still seeing some capital flows out of Europe and toward havens like gold and JPY, other markets have started to stabilize already.
It's a fairly quiet day for economic news so Brexit and the Spanish results may continue to dominate trading. Markets may remain choppy through the week as markets continue to adjust to last week's big decision.
There have been no major corporate announcements this morning.
Spain election results - 350 seats in total
Peoples Party (incumbent) 137 seats up from 123
Socialist Party 85 seats down from 90
Podemos/United Left (Euroskeptic) 71 seats unchanged
Ciudadanos (Euroskeptic) 32 seats down from 40
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
8:30 am EDT US advance goods trade balance street ($59.4B)
9:45 am EDT US Markit flash service PMI street 51.9
10:30 am EDT US Dallas Fed street (15.0) vs previous (20.8)
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