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AUD echoes CAD post-employment retreat
00:00, 16 January 2014
AUD has remained the worst performing currency among majors overnight attracting more than its share of attention as the only trading game in town today with other major pairs relatively stable. Taking its lead from Canada’s recent performance, AUD has been pounded following a shockingly bad Australian employment reports worsened by a large drop in full-time jobs. Like CAD before it, AUD has dropped off a cliff today and may remain under pressure for a couple of days before it stabilizes. Both dollars now appear to be in downtrends on speculation that their central banks may need to lower interest rates (or at least not raise them). RBA Governor Stevens previously indicated he preferred $0.8500 to $0.9500, if the economy continues to struggle, he may get his wish. AUD has also diverged from NZD which has been consolidating its recent gains on speculation that rising house prices may force the RBNZ to raise interest rates soon. Yesterday’s rally in indices ran out of gas today with European markets slumping back while US indices turned in a mixed performance. US action appears particularly concerning with the large cap Dow and S&P declining while the tech and spec weighted NASDAQ climbed. This indicates that the generals have stopped leading the charge, leaving the troops exposed and vulnerable. It’s a quiet day for Asia Pacific news, but once the reaction to US action works its way through we may see traders start to position for Chinese GDP and other big numbers that kick off next week Corporate News Intel $0.51 vs street $0.52, sales $13.8B vs street $13.7B, guides F14 sales to $52.7B vs street $53.1B American Express adjusted EPS $1.25 in line Capital One EPS Continuing operations $1.48 vs street $1.54 Schlumberger 28% dividend increase ahead of earnings tomorrow morning Johnson & Johnson FDA panel voted 10-0 against approval of Xarelto cardiovascular product application Tomorrow morning results are due from General Electric, Morgan Stanley, Suntrust Banks, Schlumberger and others. Economic News Significant announcements released overnight include: US jobless claims 326K vs street 328K US consumer prices 1.5% as expected vs previous 1.2% US Philadelphia Fed 9.4 vs street 8.7 US NAHB housing market 56 vs street 58 US natural gas storage (287 CF) vs street (300 BCF) Brazil interest rate raised 50 bps to 10.50% more than the 25 bps increase to 10.25% that had been widely expected Brazil retail sales 7.0% vs street 6.2% Upcoming significant announcements include: 9:30 am GMT UK retail sales street 2.5% 9:30 am GMT UK retail sales ex auto street 3.2% 8:30 am EST US housing starts street 990K 8:30 am EST US building permits street 1,014K 9:15 am EST US industrial production street 0.3% vs previous 1.1% 9:15 am EST US manufacturing production street 0.3% vs previous 0.6% 9:55 am EST US Michigan confidence street 83.5