he back and forth swings
in dominance between bulls and bears has continued through the European and North American trading sessions with bulls gaining the upper hand today. The rebound appears to have been partly driven by relief that sanctions against Russia have remained relatively symbolic and so political risk concerns have eased. While gold has stabilized today, wheat and corn have fallen back as political risk pricing erodes and European indices have rebounded.
Traders also appear to be responding positively to positive economic news out of China (leading indicator announced yesterday up 0.9%), and better than expected US consumer confidence. US indices have been on the rebound, but more importantly, copper has started to climb back up off the mat. The resource dollars have been climbing again today led by AUD breaking out of a big technical head and shoulders base. The other resource dollars (CAD and NZD) have also been outperforming other majors, even the strengthening USD.
It’s a quiet day for Asia Pacific news but we could see some activity in Singapore later in the day with industrial production numbers coming out and sentiment toward China could still influence trading until later in the week when focus turns to Japan’s monthly indicators.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US house price index 0.5% vs street 0.6%
US consumer confidence 82.3 vs street 78.5
US Richmond Fed (7) vs street 4 versus previous (6)
US new home sales 440K vs street 445K
Hungary interest rate decision 10 bps cut to 2.60% as expected
Germany IFO business climate 110.7 vs street 110.9
Germany IFO current assessment 115.2 vs street 114.5
Germany IFO expectations 106.4 vs street 107.7
UK consumer prices 1.7% as expected
UK retail prices 2.7% vs street 2.6%
UK producer input prices (5.7%) vs street (5.3%)
UK producer output prices 0.5% vs street 0.7%
UK house purchase loans 47.5K vs street 50.0K
Upcoming significant announcements include:
10:00 am AEDT South Korea GDP previous 3.9%
4:00 pm AEDT Singapore industrial production street 12.5% vs previous 3.9%
9:00 am GMT Italy
retail sales street (1.6%)
8:30 am EDT US durable goods orders street 0.8%
8:30 am EDT US durables ex transportation street 0.3%
9:45 am EDT US Markit flash services PMI street 54.0 vs previous 53.3
10:30 am EDT US crude oil inventories street 2.5 mmbbls
10:30 am EDT US gasoline inventories street (1.6 mmbbls)
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