Asia Pacific indices Australia 200 has a big resistance test underway at the 6,000 round number. A breakout to a new all-time high would signal a new up-leg with the next measured resistance near 6,250, while a failure would complete a double top with initial support possible near 5,920. RSI above 50 and rising indicates upward momentum growing. Japan 225 continues to trend higher, breaking out to a new high on Friday above 19,650. A measured move from the recent channel above 19,150 support suggests that a run at the 20,000 round number appears possible. RSI being overbought suggests it may need to take a rest at some point. HongKong 43 is consolidating last week’s rally up over 24,000 and 24,300, settling out near 24,500. RSI indicates upward momentum increasing with the next potential resistance near 24,690 then 25,000. US Indices US30 is back above 18,000 on the index and 50 on the RSI, indicating that momentum is starting to turn increasingly upward once again. Having cleared 18,140 - which may become support - the next resistance appears at the recent all-time high near 18,300, followed by the 18,500 round number. SPX500 is testing the top of a 2,080 to 2,110 range trying to decide whether to continue its recent pop or roll down from a lower high. RSI suggests upward momentum increasing for now but the index remains stuck in a 2,000-to-2,120 broader trading channel The next measured test could be on a breakout near 2,200. The Nasdaq is taking a run at 4,480 and the high end of its current 4,300-to-4,500 trading range. RSI above 50 and rising indicates upward momentum increasing. The next measured test on a breakout is possibly near 4,700. UK and European indices UK 100 broke through 7,000 to a new all-time high on Friday, signalling the start of a new up-leg. RSI indicates upward momentum growing with technical room to run. The next measured resistance is possible near 7,220. Germany 30 has regained 12,000 as its primary uptrend resumes, following a correction. Resistance remains in place near 12,200, which could end in a double top or a breakout. RSI being overbought again indicates more consolidation may be needed above 11,800 support. Commodities Gold broke out again on Friday, clearing $1,180 to signal a new up-leg after climbing up out of a falling wedge. RSI continues to indicate an upward change in momentum is underway. Initial resistance is near $1,200, with support rising toward $1,170. Crude Oil WTI has stabilised in the $42.00-to-$45.00 range. RSI being back above 30 suggests downward pressure easing for now. A breakout from this range would signal an upturn, with the next resistance near $46.60. Support rises toward $43.00. Forex NZD/USD is testing the $0.7570 Fibonacci resistance where a breakout would complete a double bottom base and signal the start of a new uptrend, with the next resistance near $0.7800, a 385 retracement of the previous downtrend. RSI indicates upward momentum increasing. AUD/USD held $0.7700 support and has bounced back up toward $0.7775 as it continues to build a base between $0.7550 and $0.7920. RSI peeking up through 50 suggests momentum starting to turn upward. USD/JPY has dropped back from 121.00 to test trend support and a round number near 120.00. A break through there or 50 on the RSI would signal a downturn that could test 119.40 or even the Fibonacci support near 117.85. EUR/JPY continues to base build with a symmetrical triangle between 128.75 and 132.25, indicating consolidation finishing the week on the 130.00 round number. RSI climbing toward 50 indicates downward pressure relenting and a big bear trend apparently winding down. Noble Group “Either their will power is so strong that they have extremely independent minds, or they are defacto employees”- Iceberg’s 3rd report. Iceberg’s third ‘arrow’ is fired straight at the heart of Noble Corp, its Board of Directors, and the role an independent director plays in keeping certain checks and balances of the company they represent. In this final and perhaps most direct assault in the series, Iceberg argues that with an average of 10 years served by Independent Directors on Noble’s Board (amongst the 8 of 13 directors), the commitment to be truly independent has becomes dulled, especially when “the way these independent directors are remunerated guarantees that they will never rock the boat”. The allegations continue that proper corporate governance and oversight may have been ultimately compromised, leading to slip ups and allegations over dubious accounting treatments. The independent auditors of Noble were also not spared the knife. Close comparisons were made to examples of landmark corporate failures in recent years and how the auditors in those examples failed to protect minority shareholders because of such similar lack of oversight. This third report also accounts for how they have derived their target of $0.10 for Noble’s shares – this largely after accounting for their challenge on the MTM net fair values assumption of the 12,000 contracts they have on their books. Finally - and possibility the most damaging aspect of this report - comes the warning of the potential backlash that Noble may have to face from their bankers and especially supplier creditors, who collectively have an exposure in excess of $10 billion to the company. Their considerations over these allegations may have a far more serious impact for Noble than a falling share price! Noble has opened up slightly in early morning trade. Key prices to watch for support are $0.89 and last week’s low of $0.845. Breaking this support may see the stock test $0.72, the next technical support level. Conversely, should $0.89 hold, we may see Noble continue with its bounce last week to test $0.965 and then $1.07. Also out this morning, Noble has refuted Iceberg’s latest report as inaccurate and misleading and have also initiated legal proceedings against this independent research house.
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