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Analysis: Aussie Dollar and this mornings unemployment report
00:00, 09 October 2013
The Aussie Dollar heads into this mornings unemployment rate on a firm note. Aussie held its own against against a relatively strong US Dollar last night. As result the Aussie is firmer against most of the cross rates. Today's employment report comes at a time when market opinions are fairly divided on whether or not we will see more rate cuts from the RBA. The unemployment rate will be a key factor over coming months. The consensus expectation is for jobs growth of 15,000 in today's 11.30m release. This would be a rebound from last month when 11,000 jobs were lost. Over the past 6 months we have lost an average 2,000 jobs each month. If the consensus expectation is correct, and assuming no revisions to prior figures, the rolling 6 month average would improve to +6,000. The consensus expectation today is for 15,000 jobs growth to be good enough to leave the unemployment rate steady at 5.8%. However, the trend is up. Over the past 7 months, the unemployment rate has increased from 5.4% to 5.8%. Average monthly jobs growth of 5-10,000 would not be enough to stop unemployment rising over time. Even so, you have to start somewhere. A stronger than expected number today would follow recent post election increases in business and consumer confidence and could be see the Aussie build on the firm tone set overnight. A weak number, may be seen as making another rate cut more likely and could see selling pressure on the Aussie. Looking at the 4 hour chart, a trend line across recent lows provides possible minor support for the Aussie around .9420/.9425. Below that the 50 period moving average is a potential support around .9400. The recent peak at .9484 provides potential resistance and above that the 19 September peak at .9529.