The Bureau of statistics will release Australia's July trade balance at 11.30 am. While this number only occasionally has a big market impact, the fact that it comes when the Aussie is right at the head and shoulders neck line might make this release worth watching. The consensus expectation is for a surplus of about $100m compared to $602m last month. We have averaged a $414m surplus over the past 4 months. As well as the July figure, it pays to keep an eye on any big revisions to last month's number. A really good trade result this morning could see the neck line broken and upside momentum develop as stops are triggered above that level. A bad figure might see the market giving up on the neck line for a while with a retreat back into the body of the head and shoulder