Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 67% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets, CFDs, OTC options or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

What will US jobs data bring?

Euro symbol laying on a US flag

Overnight some of the major US long and short-dated bond yields have inverted, repeatedly flashing a recession signal. However, investors have not been convinced just yet as the recent economic data is still looking strong.

The US conference board consumer index, final quarter GDP, and Chicago PMI all suggest the economy is maintaining its current momentum, despite climbing inflation weighing on future growth. The consensus for today's US non-farm payrolls is calling for 490,000 new jobs have been added in March, and a further contraction of the unemployment rate to 3.7%.

Since ongoing strong job data is already widely expected, so the number may not have a major impact on the broader markets. But the tightening labor market will secure the US Federal Reserve’s confidence for its pledge to pin down inflation by accelerating rate hikes and quantitative tightening monetary measures, in turn pressuring on the stocks markets.

As per yesterday’s narratives for a potential funds’ rotation into the US long-dated bond markets, the USD is most likely to be weakening against its peers coming into the new month. And the stock market may slow its rally, but the upcoming earnings season will also weigh on sentiment.

EUR/USD- Daily chart

Key technical elements

  • Stochastic is on the rise, providing an ongoing upside momentum may continue, but at the same time a potential imminent pullback opportunity may occur
  • MACD is on the course of a bottom reversal since 8 March, the uptrend is still intact.
  • A potential bullish break-out on the long-term descending trendline may occur.

Key price levels

Supports: 1.1058, 1.1000

Resistances: 1.1142, 1.1239

Background image

Find your flow: four principles for trading in the zone

Learn about the four trading principles of preparation, psychology, strategy, and intuition, and gain key trading insights from some of the world's top investors.

Get this free report
Mobile trading app


Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.