With Americans getting ready for their Thanksgiving holiday, markets around the world have been digesting recent moves. US index futures are flat holding on to recent gains that saw the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 all reach all-time highs on Tuesday. Gold is also steady while WTI crude oil is up slightly and copper is down slightly.
UK markets are more active today. The FTSE is up 0.5% while the Dax is down 0.4%. The Pound is trading lower today against USD, EUR and JPY ahead of today's Autumn Statement. The UK government has confirmed its support of recent stimulus from the Bank of England. Since the Brexit vote, the UK economy has continued to perform really well so we may not see sweeping measures but we may see some initiatives to help the middle and working classes. Any comments related to the outlook for the UK economy may also impact trading.
It’s a busy morning for economic news from the US with several reports usually due later in the week being moved up. Some of the big numbers due include durable goods orders, jobless claims, flash manufacturing PMI and consumer sentiment. DOE energy inventories may also attract some attention following last night’s surprise 1.3 mmbbl drawdown in API inventories. Traders have been in a good mood this week and are likely looking to extend that feeling into the holiday weekend so it would take a big surprise to move the markets meaningfully today. Volumes are likely to be light today so any swings that do happen could be amplified.
Minutes from the last Fed meeting are also due. Although a December rate hike is expected by pretty much everyone, any comments related to the path of future hikes into 2017 may attract some attention with the US Dollar index having priced in 4-5 increases next year.
Overall, US markets are expected to go quiet after about noon as traders head out for the weekend (This time of year always reminds me of the movie Planes, Trains and Automobiles). US markets are closed Thursday and return for a quiet session Friday where the desks are staffed by junior people under orders not to make any waves while the heavy hitters are out shopping. Friday and over the weekend, Black Friday sales results and anecdotes form the malls about traffic may give an idea of the state of consumer spending heading into the Christmas season.
There have been no major corporate announcements this morning.
US API crude oil inventories (1.3 mmbbls)
Norway unemployment rate 4.8% vs street 4.9%
France flash manufacturing PMI 51.5 as expected
France flash service PMI 52.6 vs street 51.9
Germany flash manufacturing PMI 54.4 vs street 54.8
Germany flash service PMI 55.0 vs street 54.0
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
8:30 am EST US durable goods orders street 1.7%
8:30 am EST US durables ex transport street 0.2%
8:30 am EST US jobless claims street 250K
9:00 am EST US FHFA house prices street 0.6%
9:45 am EST US flash manufacturing PMI street 53.5
10:00 am EST US new home sales street 590K
10:00 am EST US consumer sentiment street 91.6
10:30 am EST US DOE crude oil inventories street 1.0 mmbbls vs previous 5.2
10:30 am EST US DOE gasoline inventories street 0.9 mmbbls
12:00 pm EST US natural gas storage street 8 BCF
2:00 pm EST FOMC November meeting minutes
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