Stock markets around the world have been steady overnight as Chinese traders returned from Lunar New Year holidays. US index futures and the Dax are up marginally while the FTSE is up 0.5% as GBP retreats.
The main event Friday is the US nonfarm payrolls report which could spark another round of Fed speculation trading in USD and stocks. The greenback has stabilized overnight after retreating for the better part of two days following Wednesday’s dovish FOMC statement. The US central bank indicated it still sees inflation as low and room for employment to grow without sparking inflation.
Earlier this week, ADP posted a stellar private sector payrolls report of 246K jobs way above the 165K the street had expected. January was a month of turmoil in government jobs ending in a federal hiring freeze. Still, I think that that the new year unleashed another round of pent up hiring demand and am thinking 225K jobs plus a 20K upward revision to last month.
The response to overnight earnings reports has been mixed. Amazon.com fell 4% following a mixed report that saw earnings beat the street but sales results and guidance fall short of expectations. Visa and Amgen have been trading higher following results. US financials, particularly banks and brokerages could be active today. President Trump has financial regulation in his sights and is expected to issue orders starting the overhaul of the Dodd-Frank response to the last financial crisis and block fiduciary rules that were expected to start this spring.
Service PMI reports are also in focus today. So far the biggest impact has been in the UK where a soft report has piled more pressure on the pound taking It under $1.2500 against the US Dollar. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due at 10:00 am EST.
Amazon.com $1.54 vs street $1.37, sales $43.7B below street $44.7B, guides next Q sales to $33.25-$33.75B below street $36.0B
Visa $0.86 vs street $0.78
Amgen $2.89 vs street $2.79
Open Text $0.54 vs street $0.52
Norway unemployment rate street 3.2%
Eurozone retail sales street 1.8% vs previous 2.3%
NZ ANZ commodity prices (0.1%) vs previous 0.7%
Non-Manufacturing / Service PMI reports:
Australia 54.5 vs previous 57.7
Singapore 51.6 vs previous 52.0
Japan 51.9 vs previous 52.3
China Caixin mfg 51.0 vs street 51.8
India 48.7 vs previous 47.6
UK 54.5 vs street 55.8 and previous 56.2
Germany 53.4 vs street 53.2
France 54.1 vs street 53.8
Italy 52.4 vs street 52.5
Spain 54.2 vs street 54.7
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
8:30 am EST US nonfarm payrolls street 175K vs previous 156K
8:30 am EST US private payrolls street 170K
8:30 am EST US manufacturing payrolls street 4K vs previous 17K
8:30 am EST US unemployment rate street 4.7%
8:30 am EST US average hourly earnings street 2.8%
9:15 am EST FOMC Evans speaking
10:00 am EST US factory orders street 0.7% vs previous (2.4%)
1:00 pm EST US Baker Hughes rig count previous 712
Non-Manufacturing / Service PMI reports:
9:45 am EST US Markit previous 55.1
10:00 am EST US ISM street 57.0
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