Earnings

Rolls-Royce share price: improved H2 expected as liquidity bolstered

CMC Markets

The last two years have not been good for the Rolls-Royce share price, or CEO Warren East’s strategy plan to turn the business around.

In 2016, the CEO took the decision to execute a turnaround plan that saw underperforming areas trimmed back and the business focus on the key growth areas of civil aviation and maintenance. At the time it seemed the perfectly sensible thing to do, with airlines expanding their fleets, and switching to new greener and leaner models of aircraft.

Engine problems cause costs to soar

Soon after this it became apparent that its Trent 1000 engine, which powered the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, was starting to develop problems, with cracks forming on the turbine blades, the costs of which started to spiral out of control, causing the company to post a £2.9bn loss in last year’s full-year numbers. To compound this, there appears to be another issue with this power unit in reports yesterday that suggested a problem elsewhere, within the turbine itself. 

In 2018 this strategy of focusing its energies on civil aviation started to develop further problems, with the decision by Airbus to stop production of its A380 aircraft, resulting in further writedowns, of nearly £250m.

Recent events due to Covid-19 have compounded these problems, as the wholesale grounding of aircraft across the world and its customers taking steps to delay or cancel future aircraft orders, saw its revenue base clobbered hard. The collapse in air travel has seen nearly half of its projected revenue disappear, as airlines stopped flying, and the various travel bans bite.

In order to shore up its finances and preserve its cash flow, Rolls-Royce had to defer bonuses for its CFO and CEO, pull the dividend for the first time since 1987, as well as securing an additional $1.5bn revolving credit line in April, in addition to the $2.5bn it secured in March. Throughout all of this, the company also announced plans to cull 9,000 jobs in its civil aerospace division, out of a global workforce of 52,000. These plans drew the ire of the trade unions, however if the cash isn’t coming in and isn’t likely to either, furloughing staff merely delays the inevitable.

Rolls-Royce share price plunge

It's these concerns about the long-term durability of the company’s aerospace division, against a backdrop of much lower spending from Boeing and Airbus, that caused investors to take fright last Friday. The Rolls-Royce share price dropped from 292p to 263p on reports that it was looking at reinforcing its balance sheet further by raising additional capital, or disposing of some of its assets with ITP Aero, its Spanish operation one likely option.  

There was no mention of raising additional capital in today's Q2 update, which has seen management say that they expect a better performance in the second half of the year. Good progress has been made in reducing one-off costs, with £300m achieved in H1, with another £700m expected by the end of 2020. The company also said it would be taking a charge of £1.45bn over the next six years, in respect of reducing the size of its hedge book, with £100m of that charge being taken this year and £300m in 2021 and 2022, and then £750m spread over 2023 to 2026.

The company also said that it had pro-forma liquidity of £8.1bn, including an undrawn credit facility of £1.9bn, and commitments for a new five-year term loan facility of £2bn underwritten by a syndicate of banks and a partial guarantee from UK Export Finance. With airlines likely to remain in defensive mode for at least another 12 months, Rolls-Royce's cash flow is likely to remain constrained for a while yet, with full-year revenues set to be £4bn lower than last year, and unlikely to improve much in 2021.

In a sign that life can come at you fast, it was only at the end of February that CEO Warren East was proclaiming that free cash flow would be positive to the tune of £1bn by the end of this year. Given recent events, the company won’t even get close to that, with current estimates expected to see a total cash outflow of approximately £4bn.

While the defence business has remained resilient, the civil aerospace division is likely to remain constrained for some time to come, and while wide body engine flying hours are showing signs of picking up, they are still down 50% in the first half of this year. As long-haul flights have started to increase in China, and the Asia Pacific region, this figure should improve in the second half, however it's unlikely to improve significantly, with flying hours expected to be down 55% over the rest of the year, and only at 70% of 2019 levels in 2021.

In terms of deliveries, Rolls-Royce continues to plan for 250 widebody engine deliveries in 2020, however as Boeing and Airbus have found out recently, and Airbus announced this morning, new orders are becoming hard to come by, and that's before we consider the prospect of further cancellations, as airlines cut costs.

Rolls-Royce's defence arm has continued to perform well though. Last year the company won a new £350m contract from the Ministry of Defence to maintain and repair the engines of RAF Typhoon aircraft. Last month the company also won a host of US Navy contracts totalling $115.6m, to build a variety of engines, propulsion units and services.

Today’s update goes some way to alleviating investor concerns about the company having to raise extra capital in the short term, however it's clear that a lot of things will have to go right over the next 12 months for these concerns not to come back. There is also the prospect of further job losses, unless management can get better control of the company cashflow with management targeting £750m of free cash flow by 2022. The Rolls-Royce share price is down 6% at 270p in early trading this morning.

 

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Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.