Stock markets around the world have bounced back a bit overnight. US index futures are trading up 0.3% the FTSE is up 0.4%, the Dax is up 0.6% and the Nikkei is up 1.5%. Crude oil is up 0.5%. This appears to be a trading bounce with the Dow still under 21,000 and WTI still under $50.00 but the Dax has regained 12,000.
Currency markets are mixed today. Defensive havens like gold and JPY remain under pressure with the yellow metal down 0.6% and trading below $1,200. Resource currencies have bounced back a bit with USDCAD slipping back under $1.3500 and AUDUSD holding $0.7500. EUR is up slightly while GBP is down slightly against USD. The UK trade deficit wasn’t quite as bad as the street had expected while Germany’s trade surplus, the object of particular attention across Europe and in the US, continues to fall, coming in well below the street estimate.
Today brings this week's main economic events US nonfarm payrolls and the Canada Labour Force Survey, setting the stage for next week's big Fed meeting and interest rate decision.
Fed Chair Yellen indicated a week ago that the Fed would consider raising interest rates this month following an assessment of employment and inflation trends. Wednesday’s massive 298K increase in ADP private sector payrolls would appear to seal the deal with Fed Funds pricing in a 98% chance of an increase. Traders may look to this month’s nonfarm report for confirmation of the ADP numbers. In addition to the headline jobs number, the average earnings data may also attract attention as a sign of wage inflation which is harder to claw back than commodity price inflation.
The ADP Payrolls report was 111K above consensus, indicating that the street was way too pessimistic. With the street at 200K if we get half the beat in nonfarm that we saw in ADP, we could get a 255K print.
I also get the sense that for the third month in a row, the street may be too pessimistic about Canada jobs as well. We’re in peak energy exploration season and oil prices are a lot higher than last year, plus the US has been doing well, so things should be looking up for Canada too. While a retrenchment form last month’s big 48K increase would be understandable, I think the street calling for a 5K decrease is overdone again. I’m thinking a 20K increase in Canada jobs for this month.
There have been no major corporate announcements so far this morning.
UK industrial production 3.2% as expected vs previous 4.3%
UK manufacturing production 2.7% vs street 2.9%
UK trade balance (£ 10.8B) vs street (£11.1B)
Norway consumer prices 2.5% vs street 2.9%
Germany trade balance €14.8B vs street €18.0B
France industrial production (0.4%) vs street 0.4% vs previous 1.3%
Spain retail sales 0.1% vs street 2.5%
Greece industrial production previous 2.2%
Greece consumer prices previous 1.2%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
8:30 am EST US nonfarm payrolls street 200K
8:30 am EST US nonfarm revision previous 227K
8:30 am EST US private payrolls street 210K
8:30 am EST US average hourly earnings street 2.7% vs previous 2.5%
8:30 am EST US unemployment rate street 4.7%
8:30 am EST Canada jobs change street (5K) vs previous 48K
8:30 am EST Canada full-time jobs previous 16K
8:30 am EST Canada part-time jobs previous 32K
8:30 am EST Canada unemployment rate street 6.8%
3:00 pm GMT UK NIESR GDP estimate street 0.6%
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