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Global equity sentiment cools after bullish US move

The FTSE 100 notched up another six-month high yesterday as natural resource stocks helped the British equity benchmark outperform its Continental counterparts. It was worth noting, the DAX also managed to eke out a high not seen since October too, and the CAC 40 is not that far from an 11 month high.  

Earnings season has was major driver of the bullish sentiment on Wall Street yesterday. Solid quarterly updates from Twitter, Coca Cola, United Technologies and Lockheed Martin helped the S&P 500 to post a record close. The tech sector continues to dominate, and the NASDAQ 100 reached another record-high.

Asian markets had a hot and cold session, as gains were made in the first-half of the trading day, on the back of the bullish sentiment in the US, but the rally ran out of steam, and markets are now in the red.

Currency traders didn’t have much to sink their teeth into yesterday, but the attractiveness of the US dollar continued. Brexit uncertainty persists, the eurozone is undergoing a slowdown, and even though the US economy has gone a down a gear in terms of growth, the greenback’s stability is in demand.

Gold was punished for its inverse relationship with the US dollar yesterday, and the metal dropped to a level not seen for over three months. While the US dollar, and major stock indices drive higher, we might further losses for gold.

The US housing sector hasn’t been too strong in recent months, but the latest new home sales were a pleasant surprise. Yesterday, the report showed that there were 692,000 new sales in March, which was a jump from the 667,000 in February, and it topped the forecast of 650,000.

Oil rallied yesterday over supply fears. The US government previously gave waivers to eight countries to keep importing oil from Iran, without the threat of facing sanctions, and now the Trump administration are looking to bring that arrangement to an end. It is likely to be a major issue for the likes of China and India. In bid to keep a lid on prices, Saudi Arabia confirmed it will increase output in May, but the boost in production will be within the OPEC output target.

The latest Energy Information Administration report will be announced at 3.30pm (UK time) ,and oil stockpiles are tipped to decline by 167,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories are expected to decline by 333,000 barrels.

The German IFO business climate will be revealed a 9am (UK time), and the consensus estimate is 99.9, which would be an improvement on the March reading of 99.6.

The UK public sector net borrowing figure will be announced at 9.30am (UK time), and the surplus is expected to decline to £400 million, from £664 million.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will reveal its interest rate decision at 3pm (UK time), and the press conference will follow at 4.15pm (UK time). The BoC are tipped to keep interest rates on hold and given the cooling of the Canadian economy recently, the central bank is likely to use language that is somewhere between neutral and dovish.

EUR/USD – has been broadly pushing lower since early January, and if the negative move continues it might retest the 1.1176 area. Resistance might be found at 1.1448.  

GBP/USD – has been driving higher since early December, but has recently slipped below the 200-day moving average at 1.2968, and if it holds below that metric, it might retest the 1.2775 region. A rally might target the 1.3380 area.

EUR/GBP – while its holds below the 200-day moving average at 0.8822, its outlook is likely to be negative. 0.8471 might act as support. A rally might encounter resistance at 0.8800.  

USD/JPY – has been largely been pushing higher throughout 2019, and a break above the 112.00 area, might bring 113.70 into play. 111.23 – 50-day moving average, might provide support.







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