Aussie Dollar and the 11.30 am GDP figure

CMC Markets

While this morning's GDP number is not expected to be a major market influence, a number well outside general expectations could have an impact on the Aussie this morning. The consensus expectation is for June quarter GDP growth of 0.5% Investors will be conscious of the fact that the first GDP number is often revised higher. Even so, a significantly weaker than expected result e.g. around 0.2% for the June quarter could leave the RBA needing to revise down its current forecast of 2.25% growth for 2013 and would increase market expectations of an easing bias in monetary policy. A weak outcome like this might see the Aussie sold. The recent peak on the 4 hour chart at .9014 chart might provide initial support and below that the 20 and 50 day moving average around .8980 Stronger than expected GDP growth would support the Aussie Dollar’s recent upward momentum. The 61.8% retracement of the last major decline around .9105 might provide resistance.