API sinks oil, stocks pause, Bank of Canada Preview

CMC Markets

Stock markets around the world GBP, JPY and gold have paused ‎overnight to digest recent gains and await more news. US index futures, the Dax and the FTSE are all up 0.1%. 

Economic news was light overnight with China trade figures being the main report. China posted a bigger than expected trade surplus but enthusiasm was dampened by the fact that it came from less than expected imports. 

Interestingly, copper, which is often sensitive to China developments, ignored the report rallying 2.4%. This indicates traders remain positive about the prospects for the broader global economy‎ and the potential for more stimulus in Japan (amid talk of fiscal programs and denial of helicopter money) and the UK (ahead of Thursday's Bank of England meeting).

Crude oil, however, has been falling back with WTI dropping 0.4% overnight after ‎API inventories rose by 2.2 mmbbls instead of the 3.2 mmbbl decline the street had expected. Oil could be active today on mixed forecasts from agencies and the DOE oil and gasoline inventory reports due mid-morning.

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its meeting today. Governor Poloz has previously indicated it expects disruptions from the Alberta wildfires, Fort McMurray evacuation, and temporary oil sands shutdowns to negatively impact Q2 GDP but resumptions and reconstruction to boost Q3. The street is expecting the central bank to wait for more data to see if any additional support is needed. If the back were to surprise and cut rates it would be a sign that the damage to the economy was even worse than expected which could hit stocks.

Later today, Theresa May is expected to take over as UK PM and introduce her new Brexit cabinet, which could keep trading in UK stocks and GBP pairs ‎through to tomorrow's big MPC decision. 

The US Beige book regional economic report may indicate how broad US economic strength has been and if the Fed is under any pressure to raise rates or if it can wait until after the presidential election.

Corporate News

There have been no major corporate announcements overnight or this morning. 

Economic News

US API crude oil inventories        2.2 mmbbls vs street (3.2 mmbbls) 

China trade balance            street $45.6B
China exports                street (5.0%)
China imports                street (6.2%)

Japan industrial production        previous (0.1%)
NZ food prices                previous (0.5%)
Australia consumer confidence        previous 102.2

France consumer prices            street 0.2%
Spain consumer prices            street (0.8%)
Italy consumer prices            street (0.3%)
Eurozone industrial production        street 1.3%

Upcoming significant economic announcements include:

8:30 am EDT        Canada Teranet/Natl Bank house prices    previous 9.0%

10:00 am EDT        Bank of Canada interest rate        0.50% no change expected
10:00 am EDT        Bank of Canada monetary policy report

10:30 am EDT        US DOE crude oil inventories        street (3.0 mmbbls) 
10:30 am EDT        US DOE gasoline inventories        street (1.0 mmbbls)

2:00 pm EDT        US FOMC beige book 

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