The pound has come under pressure overnight, dropping under $1.2900 against the US dollar. A YouGov poll showing the Conservatives lead over Labour falling to 5 percentage points has rattled traders and broken election complacency.
This news has added to a trend of growing political uncertainty. With a long weekend coming up in the US and the UK, sentiment has gone more conservative and traders have been moving capital from risk markets to defensive havens. European indices are solidly lower today, with the Dax down 0.5%. US index futures are down slightly while the falling pound has propped up the FTSE.
Meanwhile gold and JPY are both rallying, with gold blasting through $1,260 and USD/JPY falling back under 111.00.
President Trump's overseas trip continues at the G7 summit. Traders may be concerned about the potential for disagreement over trade (finance ministers couldn't agree a few weeks back) and climate change (Trump is expected to decide what to do about the Paris accord sometime after the summit). Next week the President returns home to domestic turmoil and potential testimony to Congress from former FBI Director Comey. Yesterday's comments from President Trump at the NATO summit that allies have underspent by over $100 billion leaving US taxpayers stuck holding the bag the ongoing dustup over the US leaking intelligence shared from other countries and comments from the President slamming Germany on trade that ran in German newspapers indicate there may not be any mood for compromise at this meeting.
Crude oil has stabilized this morning which could take some of the pressure off of energy stocks while the gold rally could help precious metal miners.
US indices have been trading at or near all-time highs recently despite swirling political risks. Today could be a key test of confidence and willingness to hold positions over a long weekend. For data today, durable goods orders and a GDP update are due.
While this all looks encouraging, the big question over the next 24 hours is whether traders are willing to keep adding on to long positions heading into a long weekend in the US and UK.
The G7 summit being held Friday and Saturday may also have an impact on markets, particularly currencies with traders at the top of the agenda after finance ministers failed to agree on anything. At the NATO summit today, President Trump blasted 23 of the 28 member nations for failing to meet their commitments and mounting controversies over the US leaking intelligence shared from other countries.
Costco $1.40 vs street $1.31
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Singapore industrial production 6.7% vs street 6.0%
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
8:30 am EDT US Q1 GDP update street 0.9% vs previous 0.7%
8:30 am EDT US Q1 personal consumption street 0.4%
8:30 am EDT US Q1 core PCE inflation street 2.0%
8:30 am EDT US durable goods orders street (1.5%)
8:30 am EDT US durables ex transport street 0.4%
8:30 am EDT US cap gds ordrs nondef ex air street 0.5%
10:00 am EDT US consumer sentiment street 97.5
All day G7 summit in Italy
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