This week plays out for markets in three phases. First we could see reaction to weekend elections in Germany and New Zealand. In Germany, Chancellor Merkel is expected to get re-elected, the only surprise may be if the right-wing Alternative For Germany does better or worse than the 8% it has been polling at. In New Zealand, the National party looks like it's heading for re-election but whether it gains a majority or has to sort out a coalition may depend on whether the Green party captures enough of the vote to win seats in Parliament.
The focus of the middle of the week shifts to central banks with a number of Fed speakers doing the rounds including Chair Yellen. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz’s speech may also attract a lot of attention from CAD traders looking for more clarity on whether the bank is done raising interest rates for this year or not. This may partially depend on how the third round of NAFTA talks go which could also influence the Loonie. Bank of England’s Carney and the ECB’s Draghi are also out talking this week.
Later in the week, focus turns to economic data with the end of the month and quarter approaching. GDP reports for Canada, the US and UK, the monthly basket of Japanese numbers and early PMI reports (Chicago plus China) could set the stage for October.
Economic/Political news (North America time):
Saturday NAFTA talks resume in Canada
Italy Five Star picks Premiership candidate
Sunday evening Germany election results
New Zealand election results
Japan flash manufacturing PMI
Monday ECB Draghi speaking
FOMC Dudley, Kashkari and Evans speaking
Tuesday UK May, EU Tusk to meet on Brexit
FOMC Yellen, Mester, Brainard speaking
Wednesday US durable goods orders, energy inventories
Bank of Canada Poloz speaking
FOMC Bullard, Brainard and Rosengren speaking
Wednesday evening NZ RBNZ rate decision (no change expected)
Thursday US GDP update
FOMC George speaking
Thursday evening Japan unemployment, inflation, retail sales, industrial production, construction
Friday Canada July GDP
US Chicago PMI, personal income, Core PCE inflation, consumer sentiment
UK GDP update
Bank of England Carney, ECB Draghi panel
FOMC Harker speaking
Friday evening China manufacturing and service PMI
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