This week plays out for markets in three phases. First we could see reaction to weekend elections in Germany and New Zealand. In Germany, Chancellor Merkel is expected to get re-elected, the only surprise may be if the right-wing Alternative For Germany does better or worse than the 8% it has been polling at. In New Zealand, the National party looks like it's heading for re-election but whether it gains a majority or has to sort out a coalition may depend on whether the Green party captures enough of the vote to win seats in Parliament.

The focus of the middle of the week shifts to central banks with a number of Fed speakers doing the rounds including Chair Yellen. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz’s speech may also attract a lot of attention from CAD traders looking for more clarity on whether the bank is done raising interest rates for this year or not. This may partially depend on how the third round of NAFTA talks go which could also influence the Loonie. Bank of England’s Carney and the ECB’s Draghi are also out talking this week.

Later in the week, focus turns to economic data with the end of the month and quarter approaching. GDP reports for Canada, the US and UK, the monthly basket of Japanese numbers and early PMI reports (Chicago plus China) could set the stage for October.

Economic/Political news (North America time):

Saturday                      NAFTA talks resume in Canada

                                    Italy Five Star picks Premiership candidate

Sunday evening          Germany election results

                                    New Zealand election results

                                   Japan flash manufacturing PMI

Monday                       ECB Draghi speaking

                                    FOMC Dudley, Kashkari and Evans speaking

Tuesday                       UK May, EU Tusk to meet on Brexit

                                    FOMC Yellen, Mester, Brainard speaking

Wednesday                 US durable goods orders, energy inventories

                                    Bank of Canada Poloz speaking

                                    FOMC Bullard, Brainard and Rosengren speaking

Wednesday evening    NZ RBNZ rate decision (no change expected)

Thursday                     US GDP update

                                    FOMC George speaking

Thursday evening        Japan unemployment, inflation, retail sales, industrial production, construction

 Friday                          Canada July GDP

                                    US Chicago PMI, personal income, Core PCE inflation, consumer sentiment

                                    UK GDP update

                                    Bank of England Carney, ECB Draghi panel

                                    FOMC Harker speaking

 Friday evening            China manufacturing and service PMI

 

Earnings Reports and Corporate Events:

Tuesday                       Nike

Thursday                     Blackberry

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