With temperatures falling and the start of November kicking off heating season in North America, natural gas has attracted a lot of new attention this week, surging while crude oil has been stumbling. Since the spring selloff ended back in July, Natural gas has been base building in a channel between $3.50 and $4.10. Over the last week it has rallied from the bottom to the top of this channel, with an upward breakaway gap to start this week indicating traders have remembered Winter Is Coming, particularly after snow flurries were seen in many regions over the weekend. Historically, the natural gas price has tended to rise and fall with seasonal demand and often climbs into the winter, the peak demand season for gas. Another early start to winter or another brutally cold one could drive the price higher as we saw last year. A warmer winter, however, could cap a seasonal rally at some point. The move up through $4.00 and increasing RSI momentum have been encouraging for bulls, but it needs to clear $4.10 to confirm the start of a seasonal rally. Should that occur, $4.25 or $4.65 could be tested over time, the 23% and 38% Fibonacci retracements of the spring seasonal selloff.