Stocks hold on to early gains as political risk shifts from France to the US and Korea
19:00, 23 April 2017
· By CMC Markets
The new week got off to a huge start with many markets staging breakaway gaps upward and holding on to most of their gains. A number of indices challenged all-time highs and round numbers like 6,000 for the NASDAQ and 12,500 for the Dax. The Euro also soared to start the week although it gave back some of its early gains as the day progressed.
Traders rushed out of defensive havens like gold and the Yen early on. They managed to claw back some of their losses against a weak US Dollar but remained on their back foot against EUR and GBP. The US dollar appears to be struggling due to higher political risks with negotiations over funding to keep the government running at an impasse over Mexican wall funding with the click toward a government shutdown this weekend ticking. .
Traders scrambled to bet back on the EU bandwagon quickly pricing in polls suggesting that Macron has a big lead over Marine Le Pen the second round so far. The market sees Macron as a voice for continuity and stability as opposed to Le Pen who wants to take France out of the Eurozone. Two weeks is a really long time in politics, and things can change but for now, Frexit risks appear to be subsiding.
Today’s Asia Pacific session which laps yesterday’s earnings post-election trading may give an idea if this rally is sustainable legs or if it is over following the initial upward adjustment. North Korea may be in focus on another big anniversary with rumours of a possible nuclear test amid threats of attacking a US carrier as they near the waters off Korea.
US stocks advanced, but at a slower pace than their European counterparts. Industrials and Consumer products led the way in the US followed by Telecom and Financials while in Europe the big banks led the big relief rally. Hasbro gained 5.9% on the back of positive sales and earnings results. Tomorrow brings earnings from another round of big cap companies including Caterpillar, DuPont and McDonalds. Reports from big industrials may indicate if President Trump is having as positive an impact on manufacturing as he appears to have had on the banking sector.
Newmont $0.25 vs street $0.22
Barrick Gold $0.14 vs street $0.20
Canadian National $1.15 in line
Earnings from Caterpillar, Dupont, McDonalds, 3M, and others are due Tuesday morning
Significant announcements released overnight include:
US Dallas Fed 16.8 vs street 17.0
Germany IFO business climate 112.9 vs street 112.4
Germany IFO expectations 105.2 vs street 105.9
Upcoming significant economic announcements include:
(Note: 11:30 am in Sydney/Melbourne is currently 1:30 pm in Auckland, 4:30 pm in Vancouver, 7:30 pm in Toronto/Montréal, 12:30 am in London and 8:30 am in Singapore)
10:00 am EDT US new home sales street 584K
10:00 am EDT US consumer confidence street 123.0 vs previous 125.6
10:00 am EDT US Richmond Fed street 16 vs previous 22