Sinking oil, rising USD weigh on CAD to start the week
One would expect it to be pretty quiet for markets with markets in the US and the UK closed for holidays.The Dax is up 0.3%, while US index futures are trading up 0.2% in a short morning session. The biggest action overseas has been in Japan where the Nikkei spiked 1.3% and JPY sold off after the only item of substance to come out of the G7 meeting were reports that Japan’s government is about to delay a sales tax increase by 2 ½ years from April 2017 to October 2019.
Normally on days when Canada is open and the US is closed, the TSX usually trades flat to up slightly. This may be still be the case for most sectors although mining and energy could come under some pressure with crude oil and copper still sliding and gold licking its wounds from last week’s takedown.
CAD has been trading down slightly in reaction to today’s oil price decline and last Friday’s USD rally. Friday afternoon Fed Chair Yellen indicated she sees the US economy picking up and “if the data continues to improve it would be appropriate for the Fed to gradually and cautiously raise the Fed Funds rate”. Dr. Yellen is usually one of the more dovish Fed members so this statement is about as hawkish as she ever gets. Over the weekend, St/ Louis Fed President Bullard indicates he thinks markets look well prepared for a summer interest rate increase (without committing to a date due to data dependence of course).
Canada producer prices due this morning could attract some attention with some sizeable swings from last month possible. In Europe there has been some chatter about some confidence numbers which usually are ignored because there’s not much else to talk about. GDP reports have been mixed with France slightly above expectations but soft, Sweden slightly below expectations but still strong and Greece still stuck in a depression.
There have been no major corporate announcements so far today.
Significant announcements released overnight include:
Eurozone economic confidence 104.7 vs street 104.4
Eurozone industrial confidence (3.6) vs street (3.5)
Eurozone consumer confidence (7.0) as expected
Eurozone services confidence 11.3 as expected
Eurozone business climate indicator 0.26 vs street 0.17
France GDP 1.4% vs street 1.3%
France consumer spending 2.5% vs street 2.6%
Spain consumer prices (1.0%) as expected
Sweden GDP 4.2% vs street 4.3%
Norway retail sales 0.0% vs street 1.0%
Norway unemployment rate 4.7% vs street 4.6%
Greece GDP (1.3%) vs street (1.2%)
Australia new home sales (4.7%) vs previous 8.9%
Japan retail sales (0.8%) vs street (1.2%)
Announcements due later today include:
1:00 pm BST Germany consumer prices street 0.1%
8:30 am EDT Canada raw material prices street 1.1% vs previous 4.5%
8:30 am EDT Canada industrial prices street 0.4 vs previous (0.6%)