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FX analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (5 Apr 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – 1.1000 support hit, a potential bounce cannot be ruled out

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The EUR/USD has staged the expected decline as per highlighted in our last report on 1 April. And hit the supports of 1.1000 (printed an intraday low of 1.0959 on 4 April US session).

Key technical elements are now advocating for a potential bounce coupled with short-term extreme oversold condition as indicated by the hourly RSI. Flip to bullish bias above 1.0935 key short-term pivotal support for a potential rebound towards the intermediate resistances of 1.1035 and 1.1075.

However, a break down with an hourly close below 1.0935 invalidates the bounce scenario for a continuation of the minor downtrend phase from 31 March 2022 high towards the 7 March 2022 medium-term swing low area of 1.0850.

GBP/USD – Maintain bearish bias below 1.3175 key resistance

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The GBP/USD has traded sideways below the 1.3175 excess short-term pivotal resistance since our last report published on 1 April. No change, maintain bearish bias below 1.3175 short-term pivotal resistance for potential push down towards the next support at 1.3030 in the first step.

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.3175 sees a squeeze up towards 1.3240 before 1.3290 next.

USD/JPY – 121.30 remains the key support to maintain uptrend

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121.30 remains the key short-term pivotal support to watch on the USD/JPY as per highlighted in our previous report on 1 April. A break above 123.30 reinforces another potential leg of impulsive up move to retest the 28 March 2022 swing high area of 124.70 before a rally towards 125.30/80 major range resistance.

On the flipside, failure to hold above 121.30 with an hourly close below it reignites the multi-week corrective decline scenario towards 120.55 and 119.90 next in the first step.

AUD/USD – 0.7560 remains the key resistance to watch as RBA looms

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The AUD/USD has inched upwards in a slow-moving fashion as it is now around 20 pips below the 0.7560 key medium-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report on 1 April.

Maintain bearish bias and added 0.7470 (minor range support since 28 March 2022) as a downside trigger level, a break below it reinforces a potential drop towards 0.7415 next (the median line of the medium-term ascending channel from 28 January 2022 low) max 0.7365.

However, a clearance with a 4-hour close above 0.7560 sees the continuation of the medium-term corrective up move sequence towards the next resistances at 0.7640 and 0.7690.

Time stamped: 5 Apr 2022 at 7.30am SGT

Source: TradingView


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