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FX analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (30 Mar 2022)


EUR/USD – Cleared above 1.1000

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The EUR/USD has staged bullish breakout above the 1.1000 upper limit of the neutrality range yesterday and hit the resistance/target of 1.1120 as per highlighted yesterday.

Short-term elements have turned positive; bullish bias above 1.1040 key short-term pivotal support for further potential push up towards the next resistance at 1.1185 with 1.1235 as the max. However, a break with an hourly close below 1.1040 invalidates the bearish tone for a slide back to test minor range support of 1.0950 that has managed to stall the recent slide on 28 March.

GBP/USD – 1.3160 remains the key short-term resistance to watch

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The bounce seen on the GBP/USD from its intraday low of 1.3049 has managed to stall at the 1.3160 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted yesterday. No change, maintain bearish bias below 1.3160 for another potential drop towards the 1.3030 support.

On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 1.3160 negates the bearish tone for a corrective push up towards 1.3215 (the minor swing high areas of 24/25 March & former ascending channel support form 15 March 2022 low).

USD/JPY – Start of a potential multi-week corrective decline phase

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The USD/JPY has broken below the 122.40 key short-term pivotal support as per highlighted yesterday and invalidated the residual push up scenario towards the 125.30/80 major resistance zone. Right now, elements are advocating for a potential medium-term corrective decline phase to retrace the recent 2-weeks of steep up move that occurred on 11 March after the bullish breakout from the former long-term secular descending resistance from April 1990 high.

Flip to a bearish bias below 123.30 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential down move towards the next supports at 120.55 and 119.90. On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 123.30 revives the bullish tone for a rally towards 125.30/80 major resistance.

AUD/USD – Still at risk of a minor pull-back

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The AUD/USD has traded sideways in a tight range of 65 pips since Monday, 28 March which tends to precede an impending potential short-term significant breakout move. Maintain bearish bias below 0.7560 key medium-term pivotal resistance for a potential drop towards the next support at 0.7415 in the first step.

However, a clearance with a 4-hour close above 0.7560 sees the continuation of the medium-term impulsive up move sequence towards the next resistances at 0.7640 and 0.7690.

Time stamped: 30 Mar 2022 at 11.30 am SGT

Source: TradingView

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