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FX analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (24 May 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – Bearish reversal invalidated, extension of corrective rebound

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The EUR/USD has staged a bullish break above the 1.0670 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 18 May 2022. Its latest price actions have invalidated the bearish impulsive down move sequence and allow the bulls to take a foothold to establish a potential extension of its corrective tactical rebound phase in place since 13 May 2022 low within its major downtrend phase.

Flip to a bullish bias in any dips above 1.0590 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential tactical rebound towards the next resistances at 1.0770 and 1.0850. However, a break with an hourly close below 1.0590 negates the bullish tone a slide back towards 1.0470 and even 1.0350/1.0315 next.

GBP/USD – Mixed elements, turn neutral

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Given the current short-term USD weakness seen in almost all major pairs, it will be more appropriate to take a short-term neutral stance now in the GBP/USD as the conviction for the bearish bias as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 18 May 2022 has been reduced.

Turn neutral between 1.2690 and 1.2450. A clearance with an hourly close above 1.2690 sees an extension of the corrective tactical rebound towards the next resistance at 1.2770. On the flipside, a break with an hourly close below 1.2450 reignites the bears for a drop to retest the 12/13 May 2022 swing low area of 1.2170 in the first step.

USD/JPY – 127.00 met; maintain bearish bias

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The USD/JPY has stated the expected drop and hit the 127.00 support as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 18 May 2022.

Maintain the bearish bias and the USD/JPY continues to retrace the gains of its prior steep up move from 7 March 2022 low. Tightened the key short-term pivotal resistance to 128.90 for a further potential drop to retest 127.00 before the next support at 126.30/125.80 (former major range resistance from October 2002).

On the other hand, a clearance with an hourly close above 128.90 invalidates the corrective decline scenario for a resurgence of the bulls towards 131.25 before 132.00.

AUD/USD – Mixed elements, turn neutral

(click to enlarge chart)

Even though the AUD/USD has not staged a bullish break above the 0.7130 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 18 May 2022, it is more prudent to turn neutral at this juncture from an earlier bearish stance due to mixed elements.

Watch 0.7130 and 0.7000. A clearance with an hourly close above 0.7130 sees an extension of the corrective tactical rebound towards the next resistance at 0.7265.

On the flipside, a break with an hourly close below 0.7000 reignites the bears for a drop towards 0.6830 and 0.6780 next.

Time stamped: 24 May 2022 at 11.00am SGT

Source: TradingView

 


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