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FX analysis

Short-term FX Technical Strategy (21 June 2022)

foreign exchange

EUR/USD – Further extension of corrective bounce, watch 1.0450 key support

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In our prior report dated on 15 Jun 2022, EUR/USD has managed to stage the expected bounce at the 1.0400 key short-term pivotal support and hit the 1.0590 resistance.

The price actions have EUR/USD has retreated right at the 1.0590 level (printed an intraday high of 1.0600 on 17 June) but technical elements are still positive. Maintain bullish bias with 1.0450 now as the tightened key short-term pivotal support for a potential extension corrective rebound towards the next resistance at 1.0645 with a maximum limit set at 1.0685.

However, a break with an hourly close below 1.0450 invalidates the bounce scenario for a drop to retest 1.0400 and 1.0370/1.0350 (13 May 2022 swing low area).

GBP/USD – Watch the 1.2185 key support now for further potential bounce

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GBP/USD has staged the expected short-term bounce right above the 1.1900/1860 key short-term pivotal support and hit the 1.2220 resistance as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 15 June 2022.

Technical elements remain positive; maintain bullish bias above 1.2185 tightened key short-term pivotal support for a further potential extension of the corrective rebound towards the next resistance at 1.2460.

On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 1.2185 invalidates the bonce scenario for a drop to retest the 15 June 2022 swing low area of 1.1935.

USD/JPY – Mix elements post BOJ, prefer to turn neutral

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USD/JPY has pierced above 133.70/60 post BOJ’s monetary policy decision outcome on last Friday, 17 June where it maintained its ultra-easy monetary policy but made a “special mention” on the recent steep movements seen in the USD/JPY.

Prefer to turn neutral between 135.70 and 133.60; a clearance with an hourly close above 135.70 may see a further impulsive up move sequence towards 137.20/50 next. On the flipside, a break with an hourly close below 133.60 revives the medium-term corrective pull-back scenario towards 131.25/130.95 in the first step.

AUD/USD – Further corrective rebound cannot be ruled out, watch 0.6900 key support

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The bears of AUD/USD have managed to find a “floor” right above the 0.6830 key short-term pivotal support as per highlighted in our previous report dated on 15 June 2022. It rallied and hit the 0.7035 (printed an intraday high of 0.7069 on 17 June) before it staged a retreat of 168 pips.

Maintain bullish bias above a tightened key short-term pivotal support now at 0.6900 for a further potential extension of the corrective rebound to retest 0.7065 before the next resistance at 0.7115/7125.

However, a break with an hourly close below 0.6900 invalidates the bounce scenario for a drop back towards 0.6850/6830 (13 May 2022 swing low).

Time stamped: 21 June 2022 at 9.45am SGT

Source: CMC Markets

 


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